中国对美实施“双反”措施的产业救济效应研究——基于取向电工钢“双反”案的COMPAS模型分析  

Industry Remedy Effect of China's “AD and CVD” Measures on US Products:Analysis of COMPAS Model on the Grain Oriented Flat-rolled Electrical Steel Case

作　　者：宏结[1] 何平[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国政法大学商学院

出　　处：《南方经济》2014年第12期47-65,共19页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：作者主持的国家社科基金项目(12BJL060);教育部人文社科基金项目(11YJA790043)<贸易救济措施重叠使用的政治经济学分析>的阶段性成果

摘　　要：近年来，“双反”措施已成为国际贸易救济领域的新手段，其对产业的救济力度远超反倾销、反补贴措施单独使用。中国屡遭外国“双反”措施之困，已经成为“双反”措施的最大受害国，而战略性新兴产业成为受害最严重的领域之一。自2009年起，中国开始对外国产品实施“双反”措施，以维护国内产业利益。本文以首例中国对外“双反”案———对美取向电工钢“双反”案为例，以抵消税思想为理论基础，运用COMPAS模型对案件的产业救济效应进行了实证模拟。研究结果表明，中国取向电工钢在采取“双反”措施后，产出回升基准期的1．3%~2．4%，收入回升基准期的6．5%~6．9%，延续了从2005年开始的增长势头，国内产能的释放得益于及时的产业救济；中国实施“双反”削弱了美国取向性硅电钢产品在中国市场的竞争力，有效阻断美国取向性硅电钢产品不正当挤占国内市场的步伐，为国内行业发展和调整赢得了时间。这一案件的成功为未来反制“双反”调查提供了可借鉴的经验。In recent years, simultaneous application of countervailing and antidumping measures （ SCAM） has become a new means of international trade remedies. The industries relief effort of SCAM far exceeds the countervailing or antidumping measures used alone. With its strategic emerging industries severely damaged, China, which has repeatedly suffered from SCAM imposed by the trade partners, is the biggest victimized country. Since 2009, in order to safeguard the domestic industries interests, China started implementing SCAM on foreign products. Under the theory of offsetting duty thought, this paper used COMPAS model to analyses how China’s SCAM against Grain Oriented Flat-rolled Electrical Steel from the US would affect the production. The results of simulation show that：by implementing SCAM, the production of China’s Grain Oriented Flat - rolled Electrical Steel increases 1. 3% -2. 4%, and income increases 6. 5% -6. 9%. The domestic production capacity further releases. China’s SCAM has weakened the competitiveness of Grain Oriented Flat - rolled Electrical Steel from the US, which has made it hard to capture China’s market, and given time for China to adjust and develop domestic industry. The successful case on Grain Oriented Flat -rolled Electrical Steel from the US also provides experience for China to implement SCAM in the future.

关 键 词：“双反” 措施 产业救济效应 COMPAS模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]