黑龙江省未来41年气候变化趋势与突变分析  

Climate Change Trend and Mutation Analysis of Heilongjiang Province in the Next 41 Years

作　　者：张婧婷[1] 冯利平[1] 潘志华[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2014年第3期60-66,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD20B04);国家自然科学基金项目(30771249)资助

摘　　要：选用由英国Hadley中心区域气候模式系统PRECIS构建的基准时段(1961-1990年)和未来时段(2010-2050年)A2、B2情景气候数据,应用线性倾向估算法、累积距平及Mann-Kendall法对排放情景特别报告(SRES)中A2和B2情景下黑龙江省2010-2050年的平均气温、平均最高最低气温、降水量的变化趋势和突变进行了分析。结果表明:相对于基准气候(1961-1990年),未来41 a平均气温表现出明显的上升趋势,A2、B2情景下年均气温分别升高1.63℃和1.94℃,突变分别发生在2031年和2033年;相对于基准气候,A2、B2情景下未来41 a降水量分别增加5.3%和1.1%,降水量变化趋势不同,A2情景下为4.03 mm/10a,B2情景下为5.94 mm/10a,但趋势均不显著,且没有突变发生。总体上,黑龙江省未来41 a的气候为向暖湿变化的趋势。Based on IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenario data taken from the PRECIS regional climate model of Britain Hadley Centre during the two periods-baseline climate period （1961--1990） and future climate period （2010--2050） , the analysis on tendency and abrupt change of mean, maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation of Heilongjiang was conducted by using linear tendency estimation method, cumulative anomaly analysis and Mann-Kendall method. The results showed that annual rnean tempera- ture in the next 41 years （2010--2050） relative to the baseline climate （1961--1990） increases signifi- cantly by 1.63 ~C and 1.94 ~C under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Abrupt change of mean temper- ature occurs in 2031 under A2 scenario and occurs in 2033 under B2 scenario; relative to baseline cli- mate, the annual precipitation changes just increased slightly by 5.3% and 1.1% in the next 41 years under A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. The precipitation change tendency is 4.03 mm/10a under A2 scenario and 5.94 mm/10a under B2 scenario. But the difference of change tendency in A2 and B2 sce- narios is non-significant. To sum up, it is becoming warm-humid from cold-dry in Heilongjiang province in the next 41 years.

关 键 词：黑龙江省 气候变化 趋势 Mann—Kendall法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]