我国出口信用保险对出口贸易的促进作用研究——基于引力模型的多层次、多方式实证分析  

Study on the Promotion of China's Export Credit Insurance on Export Trade——an empirical analysis of multi way, multi level based on the gravity model

作　　者：王国军[1] 王德宝[1] 庹国柱[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学,北京100029 [2]首都经济贸易大学,北京100070

出　　处：《保险职业学院学报》2014年第5期5-12,共8页Journal of Insurance Professional College

摘　　要：采用2002-2013年我国外贸出口额、8个出口行业和出口到84个国家(地区)的贸易额,以及同期出口信用保险数据作为样本,在扩展引力模型的框架下,从多个层次、用多种方式研究了出口信用保险与我国外贸出口的关系。实证结果表明,出口信用保险在增加出口、推动出口市场多元化、支持有关出口行业发展等方面有较为显著的促进作用;对出口到风险较高的新兴市场国家和地区,以及船舶、机电产品等具有较高外部融资需求行业的杠杆作用更为明显;此外,在应对2008年国际金融危机中表现出一定的"逆周期"效应。This paper studies the relationship between export credit insurance and exports of China, using the data of China＇ s foreign trade exports, the trade volume of 8 export industries and 84 countries （regions） from 2002 to 2013, as well as export credit insurance over the same period. Based on the expansion of gravity model proposed, we used a variety of methods to investigate the question from multiple levels. The empirical results show that the export credit insurance have a significant role in increasing exports, and promoting the diversification of export markets, supporting the development of the export industries ; its leverage effects on exports to riskier emerging market countries and regions, as well as shipbuilding, mechanical and electrical products with higher external financing needs is more obvious. Besides, export credit insurance showed some ＂counter-cyclical＂ effect in response to the international financial crisis from 2008.

关 键 词：出口信用保险 引力模型 交互效应 

分 类 号：F841[经济管理—保险]