影响新型农村社会养老保险续保意愿因素的实证研究  

An Empirical Research on the Factors Affecting the Willingness to Renew New Rural Social Pension Insurance

作　　者：宫照[1] 周新发[1] 石安其琛 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学保险学院,北京100029

出　　处：《保险职业学院学报》2014年第5期65-71,共7页Journal of Insurance Professional College

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"城乡统筹视角下新农保的财政保障能力与保障机制研究"(11YJA630218);对外经济贸易大学科研创新课题"基于人口老龄化视角的我国社会养老保险金偿付能力可持续发展研究"(201434)

摘　　要：新型农村社会养老保险制度可持续发展的影响因素很多,研究角度多样,研究者从不同角度对新型农村社会养老保险制度的完善和发展提供了许多建设性的方法和建议。但这些研究大多针对前期试点阶段的参保意愿进行分析,而对农户续保意愿的研究非常少。与参保意愿研究相比,续保意愿的研究可以更加直接地为完善新型农村社会养老保险制度提供政策依据,实现新型农村社会养老保险制度的可持续发展。本文采用调查问卷的方式,对湖南省湘西自治州的10个行政村的1000户农民进行了实地调查,并进一步运用二元Logistic回归模型的方法,对影响农民进行新型农村社会养老保险制度(简称新农保制度)续保意愿的因素进行实证研究,论证了影响农民续保新农保制度参保意愿的主要因素。在此基础上,提出了增强农民续保新型农村社会养老保险意愿的对策,以促进新型农村社会养老保险制度的可持续发展。There are many factors affecting the new rural social pension insurance system for sustainable development and diverse research perspectives, researchers provide a number of methods and constructive suggestions from different angles on the improvement and development of new rural social pension insurance system. However, most of these studies are related to the pre - trial stage of the insurance willingness, and the studies on the wish to renewal insurance are few. Compared with insurance willingness research, research on the renewal willingness can provide more direct policy basis for the improvement of new rural social pension insurance system in order to achieve sustainable development of new rural social pension insurance system. In this paper, the authors make a survey questionnaire related to 1000 farmers of 10 administrative villages in Xiangxi autonomous, Hunan province. Based on the field survey, the authors make an empirical research on the factors affecting renewal insurance willingness of the farmers in the new rural social pension insurance system by the use of the method of Binary Logistic regression mode, and demonstrate that the main factors affecting new agricultural insurance system renewal insurance willingness of the farmers. Based on the above, the authors propose some measures to increase farmers＇ willingness to renew the new rural social pension insurance and to promote the new rural social pension insurance system for sustainable development.

关 键 词：新型农村社会养老保险制度 LOGISTIC模型 续保意愿 

分 类 号：F840.612[经济管理—保险]