云南省500年干旱灾害时空分布研究  

Study on spatial and temporal distribution of drought disaster in 500 years in Yunnan province

作　　者：余航[1] 王龙 文俊[1] 杨蕊[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南农业大学水利水电与建筑学院,昆明650201

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2014年第12期38-44,共7页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：水利部公益性行业专项云南旱灾应急响应系统研究(201001044)资助

摘　　要：干旱灾害是云南最主要的自然灾害之一,其研究对云南的社会经济发展具有十分重要的现实意义。文中选取云南省500年（1450~1949年）干旱灾害资料,采用概率统计方法、红噪声分析软件,分析得到云南省500年旱灾时空分布特征,最后提出旱灾重心概念,得到其重心分布,及其演变特征。结果表明：1）云南500年旱灾发生较为严重,时间上最为严重的是第五阶段（1850~1949年）,空间上最为严重的是滇中以及滇东部分地区;2）云南500年旱灾各指标呈现上升趋势,且具有明显的周期性;3）云南500年旱灾重心一直分布于滇中地区,且具有自西向东移动的特点。Drought disaster is one of the major natural disasters in Yunnan,and the study on it has very important practical significance for the socio- economic development of Yunnan. In this research we selected drought disaster data of Yunnan province in 500 years（ 1450 ~ 1949）,and used the method of probability and statistics,and the analysis software of red noise to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought of Yunnan in 500 years. Finally,we put forward the concept of drought in the center of gravity; get the center of gravity distribution,and its evolution characteristics. The results showed that：（ 1） 500- year drought occurred relatively serious,the most serious drought occurred in the fifth stage（ 1850 ~ 1949）; For the space distribution the most serious drought occurred in the central Yunnan and some areas of eastern Yunnan;（ 2） The drought indicators of Yunnan showed an upward trend in 500 years,and had an obvious periodicity;（ 3） The gravity center of drought distributed in the central Yunnan,and showed the characteristics of moving from west to east in Yunnan.

关 键 词：云南 时空分布特征 周期 旱灾重心 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]