江苏省碳排放影响驱动因素分析——基于STIRPAT模型  

Analysis of the driving influence factors of carbon emission in Jiangsu Province based on STIRPAT model

作　　者：潘岳[1] 朱继业[1] 叶懿安[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210046 [2]江苏省环境科学研究院,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2014年第12期104-109,共6页Environmental Pollution & Control

摘　　要：江苏省作为全国经济快速发展的省份之一,也面临着日益严峻的生态环境问题。运用《2006年IPCC国家温室气体清单指南》提出的计算方法(简称IPCC法),计算了该省1996—2012年规模以上工业能源消费的碳排放总量,并以此为因变量,选取了第二、三产业从业人数,人均GDP,城市化率,土地变化等人口和经济因素作为碳排放的影响因子,基于改进的可拓展、随机性环境影响评估(STIRPAT)模型分析了不同因素对江苏省碳排放的影响程度。结果表明,第二、三产业从业人数,人均GDP,城市化率,建设用地总量,能源消费总量每上升1%,分别会引起碳排放总量增加0.131%、0.248%、0.290%、2.198%、0.530%。土地利用方式的变化、能源消费水平、城市化水平依次是影响江苏省碳排放的主要因素,应以主要影响因素为突破口,协同次要因素,采取合理的措施来降低碳排放量。Jiangsu Province as one of the rapid economic development province in our country has faced the increasingly severe ecological environment problems.This paper calculated carbon emissions of industries above a designated scale through the IPCC method proposed by 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.This paper selected the employees of secondary and tertiary industry,per capita GDP,the level of urbanization,land use change and economic factors as factors of carbon emissions,the influence of different factors on carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province was analyzed by STIRPAT model.The results showed that when the employee,per capita GDP,the level of urbanization,land use change,energy consumption increased by 1%,it would cause the carbon emissions increase of 0.131%,0.248 %,0.290 %,2.198 %,0.530 % respectively.Land use change,the level of energy consumption and urbanization are the main factors affecting carbon emissions in Jiangsu Province.We should take the main influencing factors as the breakthrough,coordinate secondary factor and take reasonable measures to reduce carbon emissions.

关 键 词：STIRPAT模型 碳排放 驱动因素 江苏省 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]