0-1测试方法在降水混沌识别和分区研究中的应用  

Chaos Identification of Precipitation Time Series and Subdivision Based on the 0-1 Test

作　　者：危润初[1] 肖长来[1] 张余庆[2] 梁秀娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学地下水资源与环境教育部重点实验室,吉林长春130021 [2]南京信息工程大学遥感学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第12期1792-1795,1800,共5页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：吉林省科技攻关项目(20100452);教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助项目(200801830044)

摘　　要：0-1测试方法是一种新的可直接作用于时间序列的二元混沌识别方法,通过对Chebyshev映射进行混沌检验,验证了其有效性.运用该方法对东北地区106个气象站1958-2011年逐月降水序列进行混沌识别,结果表明,东北地区逐月降水序列均表现出混沌特性.同时,均方位移随时间的渐进增长率K的空间插值结果具有明显的分区特征,即东部为高值区,北部和西部为次高区,中南部为低值区,其中内蒙古东北部和黑龙江西北部存在局部的K低值区,混沌分区特征与东北地区降水地域分布特征和变化类型吻合较好.研究表明,0-1测试方法具有反映数据序列的混沌程度的特性.The 0-1 test is a new binary test approach for distinguishing chaotic dynamics, which applies directly to time series data. It was proved to be an effective test method after test for chaos of Chebyshev map. The 0-1 test was carried out on monthly precipitation time series tested to be stationary from 1958 to 2011 of 106 meteorologic stations in Northeast China. It is showed that monthly precipitation time series of all stations are chaotic, further more, the spatial interpolation of asymptotic growth rate K of mean square displacement with time shows significant spatial variability, that is, the whole study area can be divided into four sub-regions, eastern district with the highest K values, western and northern districts with the second high, south-central district with the lowest and a local area with relatively low K value in the northeastern of Inner Mongolia and northwestern Heilongjiang, which is in good agreement with the precipitation geographical distribution features and changes type of Northeast China. The results show that 0-1 test method has the characteristics to reflect the degree of chaos for data series.

关 键 词：0-1测试 混沌识别 降水序列 分区 东北地区 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]