基于改进信息扩散理论的水资源短缺风险评价研究  

Evaluation research of water resources shortage risk based on improved information diffusion theory

作　　者：杜向润 冯民权[1] 张建龙[2] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学教育部西北水资源与环境生态重点实验室,陕西西安710048 [2]山西省水利建设开发中心,山西太原030002

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2014年第6期188-194,共7页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：山西省水利科学技术项目

摘　　要：为有效评价区域水资源短缺风险状况,利用改进信息扩散理论确定风险评价等级,以模糊综合评价模型为基础,选取23项评价指标,对山西省水资源短缺风险进行评价研究。结果表明:太原、阳泉、忻州、晋中和山西全省的评价向量为0.4461、0.5189、0.4258、0.4019和0.3685,风险等级为3级,属于中风险水平;长治和晋城的评价向量为0.3896和0.3914,风险等级为2级,属于较低风险水平;大同、朔州、吕梁、临汾和运城的评价向量为0.4818、0.4865、0.4576、0.4082和0.4597,风险等级为4级,属于较高风险水平。模型评价结果与各地区水资源开发利用实际基本相符,可为区域水资源开发利用提供指导。In order to effectively evaluate the risk condition of water resources shortage ,using the improved informa-tion diffusion theory to determine the risk evaluatiog degrees ,selected 23 evaluatiog indexes ,based on the fuzzy compre-hensive evaluation model ,carried out the evaluation research of water resource shortage risk for the Shanxi Province .The results showed that：The risk vectors of Taiyuan , Yangquan , Xinzhou , Jinzhong and whole Shanxi Province were 0 .4461、0 .5189、0 .4258、0 .4019 and 0 .3685 respectively ,the risk grade was third level which belonged medium risk level .The risk vectors of Changzhi and Jincheng were 0 .3896 and 0 .3914 which belonged lower risk level .The risk vec-tors of Datong ,Shuozhou ,Luliang ,Linfen and Yuncheng were 0 .4818、0 .4865、0 .4576、0 .4082 and 0 .4597 respective-ly ,the risk grade was fourth level which belonged higher risk level .The model evaluation results were basically consis-tent with the local real situation of the water resources development and utilization ,it can be provided the guidance for the exploitation and utilization of regional water resources .

关 键 词：水资源短缺 风险评价 风险等级 信息扩散理论 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]