基于模糊故障树理论的双壁钢围堰水中墩施工风险分析  

Analysis of Construction Risk for Water Piers and Foundations with Double-wall Steel Cofferdam Based on the Fuzzy Fault Tree Theory

作　　者：刘沐宇[1] 荆武[1] 张睿智[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学道路桥梁与结构工程湖北省重点实验室,武汉430070

出　　处：《土木建筑与环境工程》2014年第6期34-40,共7页Journal of Civil,Architectural & Environment Engineering

基　　金：高等学校博士点专项基金(20110143110016);武汉市科技攻关项目(201160923308)

摘　　要：运用模糊故障树理论对双壁钢围堰水中墩施工风险进行分析,提出双壁钢围堰水中墩施工风险模糊故障树评价方法。依托武汉鹦鹉洲长江大桥重大工程,以2#墩双壁钢围堰水中墩施工过程风险分析为研究对象,选取影响其施工风险的31个底事件,构建了双壁钢围堰水中墩施工风险分析模糊故障树,明确了施工风险的关键工序,提出了相应的防范措施。结果表明:双壁钢围堰水中墩施工风险发生概率的模糊数为(0.050 15,0.052 78,0.055 42),表明2#水中墩施工风险比较大,焊缝渗漏、断桩、出现涌砂现象为施工风险较大的关键工序,必须采取相应的防范措施以降低双壁钢围堰水中墩的施工风险。Construction risk for water piers and foundations with double‐wall steel cofferdam was analyzed by the fuzzy fault tree theory. An evaluation method of construction risk for water piers and foundations with double‐wall steel cofferdam was proposed. Fuzzy fault tree of construction risk for water piers and foundations with double‐wall steel cofferdam was established based on Yingwuzhou Yangtze River Bridge. 31 bottom events were considered in fuzzy fault tree model according to 2# water pier and foundation with double‐wall steel cofferdam. Key process of construction risk was obtained and risk prevention measures were proposed. Results showed that fuzzy number of construction risk probability for water piers and foundations with double‐wall steel cofferdam was （0.05015 ,0.05278 ,0.05542）. Construction risk of 2 #water pier was highest. And weld leakage ,pile broken and sand boiling were the key processes with higher construction risk. There fore appropriate prevention measures would be taken to reduce the construction risk for water piers and foundations with double‐wall steel cofferdam.

关 键 词：鹦鹉洲长江大桥 模糊故障树 双壁钢围堰 施工风险 

分 类 号：TU745[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]