美国金融危机对中国溢出的传染渠道检验  

Test on the Contagion Channels of UAS's Financial Crisis Spillover to China

作　　者：杜晓蓉[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610064

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2014年第6期1070-1079,共10页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目资助(12CJL043)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：美国金融危机给世界经济带来的阴影至今仍未消散,各国经济受到这场金融危机的严重冲击,很多国家甚至陷入新一轮主权债务危机。因而,在后金融危机时期,考察和反思美国金融危机的传染性仍然是一个重要议题。本文以美国金融危机对中国溢出的传染渠道为切入点。通过构建指标并估算贸易传染渠道和金融传染渠道指数,发现二者均是美国金融危机冲击中国的重要传染渠道。然后利用VAR模型的脉冲响应方法,区分了这两个传染渠道对中国溢出的作用程度。实证结果表明,在美国金融危机期间,这两个传染渠道确实存在;并且贸易传染渠道对中国的作用程度更强烈,作用时间更长久。The shadow that brought by USA＇s financial crisis has still covered the world economy, and countries are attacked heavily by this financial crisis. What＇s more, some countries frequently phmged into sovereignty debt crisis on the heel of USA. Therefore it is important to analyze the contagion of USA＇s financial crisis. This paper focuses on the contagious channels that USA＇s financial crisis spills over to China. The estimated trade contagious channel and financial contagious channel are proved to be important to transfer the financial crisis to China. Then VAR model is built up to distinguish which contagious channel work more greatly. The empirical result demonstrates that trade contagious channel works stronger and lasted longer on China than financial contagious channel.

关 键 词：金融危机传染性 贸易传染渠道 金融传染渠道 VAR模型分析 

分 类 号：F13[经济管理—世界经济] O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]