850hPa温度在朝阳地区最低气温预报模型中的应用研究  

Research on Application of 850 hPa Temperature in Minimum Temperature Forecast Model of Chaoyang Area

作　　者：刘鹏飞[1] 于跃[1] 郭佰汇 毕明林 吴丹[1] 陈硕[1] 包浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省朝阳市气象局,辽宁朝阳122000

出　　处：《现代农业科技》2014年第23期271-273,275,共4页Modern Agricultural Science and Technology

摘　　要：利用NCEP/NCAR逐6 h的850 hPa温度再分析资料,采用双线性插值法(BI)计算出朝阳、北票、叶柏寿、凌源、喀左5个观测站的2:00、8:00、14:00、20:00 4个时次850 h Pa的温度值,与地面气象观测站的实况日最低气温建立相关性,并对地面观测资料按照相关分析和相关检验原理对预报方程进行因子初选,应用逐步回归方法建立分县、分月的预报方程,并使用数值预报产品T639的850 h Pa温度和中央气象台指导产品的气象要素资料对预报方程进行检验和订正。结果表明:分月建立的朝阳地区温度预报多元回归方程对于日最高、最低温度的预报有一定指导意义,预报准确率有一定提高。Using every 6 hotirs 85b hPa temperature reanalysis data, bilinear interpolation method （BI）of NCEP/NCAR was employed to calculate the 850 hPa temperature values on 2 ： 00,8 ： 00,14 ： 00,20 ： 00 of 5 stations, such as Chaoyang, Beipiao, Yebaishou, Lingyuan, Kazuo.Correlations of temperature and the live day minimum temperature of the ground meteorological observation station were established, and the ground observation data in accordance with the relevant analysis and correlation test principle of the prediction equation for factor were primarily selected, stepwise regression method was used to establish forecast equation dividing into counties ,month by month ,inspection and correction of the prediction equation of meteorological data on the 850 hPa temperature of T639 numerical forecast products and the central station to direct product were conducted.The results showed that there were certain guiding significance forecast monthly established local temperature prediction of multiple regression equation for daffy maximum and minimum temperature in Chaoyang area, forecast accuracy were improved to a certain degree.

关 键 词：850 hPa温度 最低气温 完全预报方法 双线性插值法(BI) 预报模型 辽宁朝阳 

分 类 号：S157.1[农业科学—土壤学]