重庆市手足口病2008—2013年流行特征及趋势预测研究  

Study on epidemiological features of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008—2013 in Chongqing and prediction of epidemiological tendency

作　　者：唐小静[1] 曾庆[1] 吴田勇[2] 李勤[3] 赵寒[3] 易娟[3] 肖达勇[3] 夏宇 杨荣刚 方明金 

机构地区：[1]重庆医科大学卫生统计与信息管理教研室,重庆400016 [2]四川省泸州市疾病预防控制中心,泸州646000 [3]重庆市疾病预防控制中心,重庆400042 [4]重庆市卫生局卫生应急办公室,重庆401147

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报（医学版）》2014年第11期1657-1662,共6页Journal of Shanghai Jiao tong University:Medical Science

基　　金：重庆市卫生局科技计划项目(2011-2-583)~~

摘　　要：目的分析重庆市手足口病2008—2013年的流行特征及未来趋势。方法运用描述性流行病学方法,分析重庆市2008—2013年报告的手足口病发病资料,利用SAS/ETS的时间序列预测系统对重庆市2008—2013年手足口病发病进行建模与分析。结果 2008—2013年重庆市共报告手足口病例111 595例,死亡89例,年均发病率64.07/10万,死亡率0.51/10万;男性发病数多于女性;发病集中在0--5岁的儿童（96.56%）;各职业中,以散居儿童（58.97%）、幼托儿童（36.94%）为主;全市各区县均有病例报告,主城9区发病率高于远郊区县;发病有明显的季节性特点,2008—2011年发病数在3—8月呈单峰流行,2012年、2013年3—8月和10—12月出现两个流行峰,10—12月流行峰较3—8月更高。SAS/ETS时间序列预测系统自动筛选出的预测模型为季节性指数平滑模型,结果提示2014年手足口病发病有继续上升的趋势,在5—8月有一个发病高峰。结论重庆市2008—2013年手足口病发病存在明显的性别、年龄、职业、地区、季节差异,季节性指数平滑法能较好地模拟重庆市手足口病发病在时间序列上的变动趋势,对手足口病的防控具有重要的指导意义。Objective To analyze the epidemiological features of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008--2013 in Chongqing and the epidemiological tendency in the future. Methods The data of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008--2013 in Chongqing were analyzed by the descriptive epidemiological method. The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease during 2008--2013 in Chongqing was modeled and analyzed by the time series for casting system of SAS/ETS. Results From 2008 to 2013, a total of 11 595 cases of hand-foot-mouth disease were reported in Chongqing and the average annual incidence was 64.07/100 000. Among them, 89 cases died and the average annual mortality rate was 0.51/100 000 were 0-5-year-old （96.56%） scattered living children Male cases were more than female cases. Most patients （58.97%） and kindergarten children （36.94O/o）. Each county and district of Chongqing reported cases. The incidence of major 9 urban districts was significandy higher than that of suburbs. The onset had an obvious seasonal trend. A single epidemic peak appeared and between March and August of 2008--2011 and two epidemic peak appeared between March and August and October and December of 2012--2013. The epidemic peak of October-December was higher than that of March-August. The prediction model that was automatically screened by the time series forcasting system of SAS/ETS was a seasonal exponential smoothing model. The results of prediction showed that the trend of incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in 2014 was upward and a peak would appear between May and August. Conclusion Obvious differences of gender, age, occupation, region, and season exist for the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chongqing during 2008--2013. The seasonal exponential smoothing method can satisfactorily simulate the variation trend of time series for the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Chongqing and is important for guiding the prevention and control of hand-foot-mouth disease.

关 键 词：手足口病 重庆市 季节性指数平滑模型 SAS/ETS 

分 类 号：R725.1[医药卫生—儿科] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]