雷暴潜势预报中几个基本问题的讨论  

Discussion on Basical Issues of Thunderstorm Potential Forecasting

作　　者：王秀明[1] 俞小鼎[1] 周小刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2014年第4期389-399,共11页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41005002;41175043和41075078);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2013CB430103);中国气象局强对流创新专家团队项目共同资助

摘　　要：基于雷暴发生三要素的雷暴潜势预报思路已被广为接受,文章旨在讨论其在业务预报应用中的一些具体问题,澄清一些容易混淆的概念。内容包括大气层结不稳定与对流;雷暴触发机制与抬升作用及其与天气系统的关系;如何处理雷暴发生三要素"足够"的问题;"流型识别"与"配料法"的综合应用等。层结不稳定是雷暴发生三要素之一,也是短时预报分析的重点.文章讨论了各种中尺度不稳定在雷暴发生中的作用,给出了估计CAPE值时空演变的着眼点,对位势不稳定和对称不稳定概念及其判据进行了较深入的讨论。Thunderstorm potential forecasting based on three ingredients has been wlaeiy acceprea. article aims to discuss some basical questions in operational forecast applications, and clarify some easily confused concepts. The content includes atmospheric instablility and convection, thunderstorms trigger mechanism and lifting and its relationship with snoptical weather system, how to deal with the three elements of the thunderstorm ＂enough＂, the combination of pattern recognition and ingredients based forecas- ting methodology. Atmospheric instablility is one of the three ingredients of convection initiation, and it is also very important to thunderstorm short-time forecasting and analysis. This paper discusses various mesoscale instability related to the thunderstorm, and inicates how to estimate the spatial and temporal evolution of CAPE. In addition, the definition and criterion for potential instability and symmetric instability are discussed profoundly.

关 键 词：雷暴潜势预报 配料法 静力不稳定 位势不稳定 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]