相对静止人口与潜在人口红利测算方法研究  

A Study on Relative Stationary Population and Potential Demographic Dividend Calculation

作　　者：何练[1] 麻彦春[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学珠海学院,广东珠海519041

出　　处：《人口学刊》2015年第1期15-25,共11页Population Journal

基　　金：吉林大学教材建设项目:人口;资源与环境经济学

摘　　要：本文提出一种测算人口红利的新方法,即利用相对静止人口代替静止人口作为参照系测算潜在人口红利,进而为估算人口红利奠定基础。首先,从统计学角度将总人口变异系数小于5%的人口状态定义为相对静止人口状态。其次,处于相对静止人口状态的国家,其人口特征与静止人口相似,包括自然增长率接近零、性别结构相对固定、人口年龄结构相对稳定等,尤其是适龄劳动年龄段的人口比重在66%的水平上。最后,以这一稳定人口年龄结构为参照系,可以测算不同国家的潜在人口红利。Relative stationary population refers to the populations of some countries remain relatively stationary in real world. Comparing with other countries, the populations of this type of countries change only a few. Their characteristics are similar to those in stationary population, including natural growth rate approaches to 0, sex and age structure remains stable, and so on. Especially, the proportion of the population ages 15 to 64 approaches to 66%. As this age structure is set to be a frame of reference, the potential demographic dividend of different countries can be calculated precisely. Empirical analysis also proves that, it is workable to use relative stationary population instead of standard population in calculating potential demographic dividend.

关 键 词：相对静止人口 潜在人口红利 稳定人口 人口红利 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]