从贸易生态化视角看中国对外贸易可持续发展变迁:一个PSR模型的量化评估  

Sustainable Development Changes of China's Foreign Trade from Perspective of Trade Ecologization: A Quantitative Assessment Based on PSR Model

作　　者：戴明辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2015年第1期132-144,共13页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：江西省社会科学研究规划项目(13JL04);江西省社会科学研究规划项目(13JL07);教育部人文社科青年项目"要素市场扭曲对出口行业能源消耗的影响及机制研究"(14YJC790052);教育部人文社科青年项目(13YJC790134);国家社科基金项目(13BGL101)

摘　　要：文章基于"压力-状态-响应"的逻辑框架,构建了包含3个层次、14个指标的贸易生态化评价指标体系,并借助综合指数及系统协调度函数来分析1987-2012年间中国的对外贸易可持续发展问题。研究结果表明,样本期间内我国对外贸易可持续发展水平有显著提升,综合指数增加了0.2861;外贸发展的生态环境压力整体减轻,压力子系统得分增加了0.1366;实体响应持续加强,响应子系统得分增加了0.2764;但状态仍在恶化之中,子系统得分年均递减率为2.98%。从系统协调度来看,各子系统及内部因子之间的协调性整体提高,但近年来有下降迹象,可采取包括加大一般贸易比重、促进加工贸易转型升级在内的措施来优化三个子系统间的配合。This paper combs the related ideas and theories regarding trade ecologization before designing an evaluation system including 3 layers and 14 indexes, which is placed under a logic framework called ＂Press-State-Response＂ （PSR） for regional trade ecologization. By constructing Trade Ecologization Index （TEI） and Coordination Degree Function （CDF）, the paper simulates and analyzes the progress of China＇s trade ecologization from 1987 to 2012. The results of the study show that the level of China＇s foreign trade sustainable development has significantly improved in the very period, with the value of TEI increased by 0.2861. The press from development of foreign trade has on the whole re- duced, with an increase of 0.1366 in the subsystem score, and the response has been strengthening, witnessed by a rising score in the subsystem, i.e. about 0.2764 higher than the starting point. However, the overall state has been worse with an annual decline rate of 2.98%. As far as the coordination degree is concerned, the values among subsystems and internal factors are in general going up, but have signed a slight drop in recent years; it may call for possible measures featuring further optimization of coordination among the three subsystems involving increasing the proportion of common trade, upgrading processing trade, etc.

关 键 词：贸易生态化 对外贸易可持续发展 贸易与环境 历史变迁 PSR模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]