非对称视角下我国通货膨胀的动态行为分析  

Dynamic Behavior Analysis of China's Inflation in an Asymmetric Perspective

作　　者：聂飒[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南民族大学经济学院,云南昆明650031

出　　处：《石河子大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第6期64-71,共8页Journal of Shihezi University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

摘　　要：该文在非对称性视角下构建分位数自回归模型,实证检验我国1990年1月到2013年5月的月度通货膨胀率的动态发展趋势,研究得出,在较低的分位区间里,通货膨胀受到一个负向冲击以后便可调整到一个稳定水平,而在较高的分位区间里,通货膨胀受到一个正向冲击以后便表现为一个单位根过程,这说明通货膨胀的动态调整行为具有非对称性。另外,考虑到结构断点来重新估计模型可知,从总体来看通货膨胀的动态行为是一个平稳过程,但在不同的时期里通货膨胀的动态行为仍具有非对称性。上述实证检验结果可为国家出台治理通货膨胀、促进物价稳定的宏观调控政策提供现实依据。The quantile regression model is constructed to analyze the dynamic development trend of inflation rate in an asymmetric perspective based on monthly data from January 1990 to May 2013 in China.These results show that inflation rate can revert to the stable level after a negative impact in the lower quantile interval, while the inflation rate is a unit root process after a positive impact in the higher quantile interval. These show that inflation rate＇s dynamic adjustment behavior is asymmetric. Then, according to the structural breakpoints, the reestimate model shows that the inflation rate＇s dynamic adjustment behavior is a stationary process in most ways, while the inflation fate＇s adjustment is still asymmetric in different periods. Those empirical test results can be introduced to provide a realistic basis for the nation to manage inflation, promote the stable prices of macro-control policies.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 非对称视角 动态行为 分位数自回归模型 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]