贸易条件与中国经常项目差额波动研究——基于跨时现值模型  

Terms of Trade and Fluctuations of China's Current Account Balance——Based on Intertemporal Present Value Model

作　　者：周亚军[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学中亚经贸研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012 [2]新疆财经大学金融学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2015年第1期54-65,共12页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：新疆财经大学博士科研基金项目"贸易条件;消费习惯与中国经常项目差额波动研究";课题编号:2013BS019;新疆财经大学中亚经贸研究院立项课题;课题编号:2012ZY63C010;2012年度新疆社科基金项目;课题编号:12BGJ64

摘　　要：对经常项目的跨时现值模型进行扩展,将贸易条件包含进模型,并利用中国1982至2012年的时间序列数据对模型进行实证检验。实证结果表明:包含贸易条件的扩展模型对中国经常项目差额波动的预测能力有了显著提升,贸易条件的变化成为中国经常项目波动的重要影响因素。贸易条件的恶化使得居民当前的消费成本高于未来的消费成本,跨时替代效应引起当前消费的减少而导致经常项目顺差,贸易条件改善则有相反的效应。因此,改善中国的贸易条件是拉动经济、调节国际收支的有效途径。This Paper extends the intertemporal present value model, integrates the terms of trade, and uses times series data of China from 1982 to 2012 to conduct empirical test. The test results show that the extended model which includes terms of trade are confirmed correctly, the model has improved the predictive ability to current account balance, the model＇ s efficacy is significantly improved, the changes of terms of trade become an important factor influencing the China＇ s current account fluctuations. The deterioration of terms of trade makes the current cost of residents＇ consumption is higher than future cost, intertemporal substitution effect causes residents reducing current consumption and resulting in current account surpluses, improved terms of trade has the opposite effect. Therefore, improving terms of trade is an effective way to stimulate domestic demand and adjust the balance of payments.

关 键 词：跨时现值模型 经常项目 差额波动 贸易条件 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学]