基于偏最小二乘法的武汉市生态足迹模型及驱动力研究  

Studying the Ecological Footprint Model and the Driving Forces in Wuhan City based on Partial Least Squares

作　　者：尤艳丽[1] 周敬宣[1] 李湘梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学环境科学与工程学院,武汉430074 [2]湖北经济学院,武汉430205

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2014年第19期4751-4756,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金项目(2012FFB02702)

摘　　要：选取表征社会经济发展的重要指标建立了社会经济系统指标,在对武汉市1990-2012年生态足迹计算结果基础上,应用偏最小二乘法构建了武汉市生态足迹回归模型,并分阶段对其生态足迹驱动力进行了分析。结果表明,1990-2010年间武汉市生态足迹呈上升趋势,主要驱动力为城市化率、人口规模及经济水平的提高;2010年武汉市生态足迹达到高峰值,为2 335.537 hm^2,人均生态足迹为2.8 hm^2/人,随后生态足迹与GDP及人均可支配收入于2011年开始呈现负相关性,生态足迹与GDP开始呈现倒＂U＂型转折点,人均生态足迹于2012年下降为2.43 hm^2/人;＂十二五＂期间,武汉市高新技术产业所占比例及第三产业所占比例的增加,能源消耗总量及万元工业能耗的下降,对减缓人口对自然资源的依赖发挥了重要的作用。The key indicators used to characterize socio-economic development were selected to establish socio-economic system in Wuhan City.Based on the calculations of ecological footprint（EF） in Wuhan city during 1990-2012,the EF multiple liner regressive model was built with the application of partial least squares.The driving forces of EF in two stages were analyzed.The results showed that EF of Wuhan city from 1990 to 2010 increased rapidly.The main driving forces were urbanization,population growth and economic growth.The total EF of Wuhan in 2010 peaked at 2 335.537hm^2 and per capita ecological footprint was 2.8 hm^2/person.After 2010,the correlation between EF,GDP and per capita disposable income became negative and per capita ecological footprint was reduced to 2.43 hm^2/person in 2012.There was a inverted U curve relation between EF and GDP after 2011.It is indicatied that the increase of high-tech industry proportion,the proportion of tertiary industry,the decline of total energy consumption and unit industrial energy consumption played a beneficial role in relieving the relying on natural resources by population during the ＂Twelfth Five-Year Guideline＂in Wuhan city.

关 键 词：偏最小二乘法 生态足迹 驱动力 武汉市 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]