户籍约束下城市规模与经济增长的非线性研究  

Research on the Nonlinear Relation of City Scale and Economic Growth under the Constraint of Urban Household Registration

作　　者：袁凯华[1] 徐小钦[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005 [2]重庆大学人口、资源与环境经济管理研究中心,重庆400044

出　　处：《广东财经大学学报》2014年第6期32-42,共11页Journal of Guangdong University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BJL021)

摘　　要：利用2000年-2010年31个省市城市规模与经济增长的相关数据,构建门槛回归模型,探讨户籍管制下城市规模与经济增长的动态发展过程。研究发现：户籍管制的确构成了城市规模的发展瓶颈,过高的户籍管制导致城市规模与经济增长的负相关,而过低的户籍管制则影响城市规模对经济增长的带动作用;进一步结合样本分布的时空特征,指出户籍约束而非过度城市化导致了现阶段城市规模的低效率集聚。城市规模与经济增长的非线性关系,应该通过户籍改革加快城市化进程,并制定合理的户籍管制政策,防止户籍管制过低或过高对经济增长造成不利影响。Using 31 provinces＇ relevant data of city scale and economic growth from 2000 to 2010, this paper builds a threshold regression model to investigate the dynamic development process of urban household size and economic growth. It finds that： household control does constitute a bottleneck for the development of city scale, and too-high household control leads to the negative correlation of city size with economic growth, while too-low household control cannot maximize the driving role of city size in economic growth. The further integration of spatial and temporal characteristics of the sample distribution shows that it is the household constraint rather than the excessive urbanization that has led to the low efficiency of urban-scale gathering stage. The nonlinear relation between city size and economic growth should accelerate the process of urbanization through household registration reforms, and reasonable household regulatory policies should be devel- oped to prevent the adverse effect of too-low or too-high household control on economic growth.

关 键 词：城市化 城市规模 户籍约束 经济增长 非线性关系 

分 类 号：D631.42[政治法律—政治学] F299.2[政治法律—中外政治制度] F124[经济管理—国民经济] F224