基于AnnAGNPS模型的三峡水库生态屏障区径流与土壤侵蚀的变化  

Changes of Runoff and Sediment Yield in Three Gorges Reservoir's Ecological Barrier Range Based on AnnAGNPS Model

作　　者：田耀武[1,2] 黄志霖[2] 肖文发[2] 曾立雄[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南科技大学林学院,河南洛阳471003 [2]中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所,国家林业局森林生态环境重点实验室,北京100091

出　　处：《西北林学院学报》2014年第6期24-28,51,共6页Journal of Northwest Forestry University

基　　金：林业公益性行业科研专项(201104008);国家‘十二五’科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD38B04)

摘　　要：利用调查统计和生态产业化工程建设数据,基于GIS技术和AnnAGNPS模型预测三峡水库生态屏障区7条典型农林小流域4种情景模式下径流和土壤侵蚀的变化。结果表明,与2000年相比,2020年7条流域地表径流量将平均减少40.7mm,土壤侵蚀量将减少5.41t·hm-2;流域径流量与坡度呈显著正相关性(p<0.05),与林地面积比率呈显著负相关性(p<0.05),与农地比率相关性不显著;土壤侵蚀量与林地面积呈显著负相关性(p<0.05),与农地面积呈显著正相关性(p<0.05),土壤侵蚀量空间变异系数均值为160%,为径流量的4.35倍,土壤侵蚀影响因素的不确定性远多于径流量;三峡水库屏障区实施退耕还林和生态产业化工程建设后,水土保持功能持续增强。利用AnnAGNPS模型输出的方法能较为客观地计量流域尺度径流量和土壤侵蚀量,但该方法所需数据量庞大,可能会限定其他地区的推广。Using statistical survey and observed data of ecological engineering construction,runoff and sediment yield in ecological barrier area of Three Gorges Reservoir were estimated from 7typical watersheds with 4scenarios based on the GIS technology and AnnAGNPS（annualized agricultural non-point source）model.Compared with 2000 in the year of 2020,the surface runoff will decrease by 40.7mm in average,and the amount of soil erosion will decrease 5.41t·hm^-2 in average.Runoff is positively correlated with slope degree（p〈0.05）,negatively correlated with the percentage of forest area（p〈0.05）,but not significantly correlated with the percentage of farmland area.Sediment yield is negatively correlated with the percentage of forest area（p〈0.05）,while positively correlated with the percentage of farmland area（p〈0.05）.The spatial variability coefficient of sediment yield is 160%,4.35 times of surface runoff.Uncertainty of influencing factor of sediment is much higher than that of runoff.The method of using the AnnAGNPS model output can objectively estimate water and soil conservation on watershed scale.But thismethod not only needs a large amount of data,but also the process is very complicated,which might be influenced by multiple factors above.This will affect the application of the AnnAGNPS model in some other places.

关 键 词：ANNAGNPS模型 三峡水库屏障区 径流量 土壤侵蚀量 评定 

分 类 号：S714.7[农业科学—林学]