保护层分析(LOPA)定量的若干问题研究  

Research on quantization of LOPA

作　　者：靳江红[1] 胡玢[1] 赵寿堂[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市劳动保护科学研究所

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第10期82-87,共6页China Safety Science Journal

摘　　要：为指导保护层分析(LOPA)方法的正确应用,探讨LOPA定量中的几个问题。类比事件树后果发生概率的计算方法,以单个独立保护层(IPL)的场景频率为例,区分低要求模式与高要求模式的场景频率计算公式,严格界定计算参数的选用范围;基于概率论,改进多重初始事件场景频率的计算方法,总结出求和法和最大值法等2种方法的应用原则。研究结果表明,高要求模式与低要求模式的场景频率的计算公式不同,分别采用第1个IPL的失效频率和初始事件频率与其他IPL的失效概率相乘来计算;采用IPL的瞬时失效概率的定量计算结果更加准确。各初始事件导致的场景频率值相差较大或存在共用的IPL的情况适用最大值法,其他情况采用求和法。For the sake of guiding the corrective application of LOPA,this paper researches on quantization of LOPA. Comparing the computing methods of event tree consequences by analogy,the paper discusses basic quantitative principles of LOPA taking the scenario frequency of one IPL as example,distinguishes between computing formulas of scenario frequency for low demand mode and those for high mode,and defines the selection of calculation parameters strictly. Based on probability theory,the computing method for scenario frequency of multiple initial events is improved and application principle of two methods,i. e.summation method and maximum value method,is brought forth. Research results show that computing formulas of scenario frequency for low demand mode are different from those for high demand mode,and initial event frequency and demand rate of first IPL are adopted to multiply with PFD of other IPLs respectively,that quantitative calculation results with PFD are more accurate,and that in case that scenario frequency values induced by various initial events differ greatly from each other or there exist the shared IPLs,the maximum value method is appropriate,otherwise,the summation method should be adopted.

关 键 词：保护层分析(LOPA) 独立保护层(IPL) 场景频率 低要求模式 高要求模式 要求时危险失效概率(PFD) 多重初始事件 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]