内河航运安全状态监测与指数体系研究  

Study on monitoring and index system for inland navigation safety

作　　者：李昊[1,2] 张庆年[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学交通学院,湖北武汉430063 [2]湖北工业大学土木工程与建筑学院,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第10期94-100,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：交通部软科学项目(2013-322-811-470)

摘　　要：为实现航运安全监测的精准化,将航运安全实时状态以指数形式进行动态连续表征。从人、船、环境、管理4方面分析总结内河航运安全的影响因素,并以其为节点确定贝叶斯网络拓扑结构,构建内河航运安全评价贝叶斯网络模型,确定不同因素状态组合条件下航运安全性概率。采用模糊综合评价法量化事故后果的严重程度,进而综合安全性概率与事故后果严重度,计算得到航运安全状态综合值。建立由总指数与分指数共同构成的航运安全指数体系,将航运安全状态以指数形式进行精细化描述。安全指数体系将航运安全状态评价数值化,能直观反映航运安全状态总体及分部的变动方向与程度,指数的实时测算与发布为航运安全精确化监测提供数据支持。A safety index system was constructed to quantify the inland navigation safety state,which could makes safety monitoring more accurate. Factors influencing safety state were analyzed from four aspects： crew,ship,environment and management. Bayesian network topology was established with these factors as its nodes. A bayesian network model was constructed based on evidence reasoning to evaluate safety probability under different combinations of factors states. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used for assessing accident consequences. The probability and the consequence were synthesized to represent navigation safety state comprehensively. Finally,a safety index system,including comprehensive index and sub-index,was constructed to describe inland navigation safety state accurately. Real-time computing and release of safety index makes inland navigation assessment more precise and provides data support for safety monitoring.

关 键 词：内河航运 安全评价 指数体系 贝叶斯网 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：X924.3[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]