锅炉压力容器焊接安全评估概率统计模型研究  

Study on safety assessment probability statistics model for boiler and pressure vessel welding

作　　者：张宇栋[1] 卿黎[1] 牛犇 

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学国土资源工程学院,云南昆明650093 [2]昆明锅炉有限责任公司,云南昆明650217

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第10期107-112,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：昆明理工大学自然科学研究基金资助(KKSY201321083)

摘　　要：为了提高对锅炉压力容器设备焊接工艺的安全评估质量,利用安全管理统计所产生的大量历史数据,计算待评估焊接部件的检验观测值对应的安全评估基线参数。基于不断更新的历史数据,实现安全评估基线的持续改善。以分组组合样本数据处理的方法对检验观测值进行处理。构建评估输出结果由二元结果(安全、不安全)到概率值的安全评估概率统计模型。研究表明,在具体的工程应用实践中,该模型对焊接工艺安全评估所得概率结果的可靠度超过99%,提供了高可靠度的安全评估概率值的结果,明显简化了焊接部件安全估计过程。According to the safety assessment requirements of welding process of boiler and pressure vessel in the manufacturing process,an assessment method is worked out based on probability and statistics theory. On basis of a large number of past record data generated by safety management statistics in the production process of equipment,parameters of safety assessment baseline were calculated and inputted into record database,to achieve continuous improvement in safety assessment baseline. The test observation values of welded components are processed in a way of grouping and merging of sample data. A probability statistics model was built for safety assessment,from which output is a probability value. The assessment method based on probability and statistics theory is reliable.

关 键 词：概率统计模型 样本 安全评估 锅炉压力容器 焊接 

分 类 号：X944[环境科学与工程—安全科学]