防护工程口部震害风险DEA评估方法研究  

Study of DEA risk evaluation method about earthquake-damaged underground engineering entrance

作　　者：王凤山[1,2] 戎全兵[2] 郭杰[1] 张宏军 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学野战工程学院,江苏南京210007 [2]解放军理工大学指挥信息系统学院,江苏南京210007

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2014年第10期157-162,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(51308541);江苏省自然科学基金资助(BK20130066);中国博士后科学基金资助(20110491844);中国博士后科学基金特别资助(2013T60913)

摘　　要：提出用数据包络分析(DEA)方法对防护工程口部震害风险进行综合评价,以改善相应风险管理水平。通过区分防护工程口部震害风险体系的本质属性和外部诱因,构建多输入、多输出模式的风险单元,建立防护工程口部震害样本相对安全的线性规划模型。应用超效率、理想样本、主客观系数等DEA方法,评价防护工程口部震害风险全要素效率,进行样本相对安全数值计算及主客观比对分析,选出风险状态极差的防护工程口部震害对象。研究表明,防护工程口部震害风险诸单元存在弱有序性现象,用组合DEA方法能够清晰得出其优劣顺序,确定防护工程口部风险防范重点,提高风险管理水平。In allusion to prevent and control the risk to such earthquake-damaged protective engineering entrance,DEA method was put forward and applied into the comprehensive evaluation about such earthquake-damaged risk entrance parts. Through partitioning the essential characters and external incentives of earthquake-damaged risk system for such typical protective engineering entrance parts,the earthquakedamaged risk units were erected with multi input and output mode for such entrance parts. Such linear programming model was designed on relative risk to such earthquake-damaged entrance risk sample of protective engineering,and whole factor efficiency was carried and evaluated about such earthquake-damaged entrance risk with super efficiency DEA model,the relative safe parameter was calculated,and subjective and objective comparison was carried for above risk sample,which determined the worst risk entrance part.Such study showed,there was weak order correlativity among risk units of earthquake-damaged protective engineering entrance,compounded DEA method could clearly discriminate the preponderant order,ascertained the risk early-warning emphasis of protective engineering entrance,and therefore improved the risk management level.

关 键 词：防护工程口部 地震 风险评估 数据包络分析(DEA) 超效率DEA 相对有效性 

分 类 号：X928.9[环境科学与工程—安全科学] P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]