基于层次分析和模糊综合评价的区域危险品道路运输事故概率评估  

Accident Probability Assessment of Road Transportation of Dangerous Goods Based on AHP-FCE

作　　者：刘萌斐 钱瑜[1] 夏秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学环境学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2014年第6期171-176,共6页Safety and Environmental Engineering

摘　　要：考虑到我国现阶段可利用的危险品道路运输事故的历史数据十分有限,本文结合特定路段的实际情况,基于层次分析法和二级模糊综合评价法,建立了一种新的危险品道路运输事故概率评估方法。首先利用层次分析法,除了对特定路段的危险品、驾驶人员、运输车辆及罐体、道路及环境以及道路实时管理等常规影响因素进行更全面的分析外,还首次引入人为故意破坏等特殊影响因素,并根据各因素在危险品道路运输事故中的影响大小,采用1-9标度法确定各影响因素的权重;然后根据模糊数学理论,建立不同影响因素的隶属度函数;最后通过二级模糊综合评价形成危险品道路运输事故概率评估计算方法。通过实例研究表明,该方法可为危险品道路运输事故概率评估研究提供新的思路,为特定区域危险品道路运输风险管理工作的开展和评估提供指导,也有助于危险品运输管理决策支持系统的开发。Considering the lack of relevant information about road transportation accidents of dangerous goods in China,this paper constructs a new dangerous goods road transportation accident probability evaluation method based on Analytical Hierarchy Process（AHP）and secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation（FCE）according to the actual situation.Firstly the paper analyzes conventional influence factors such as dangerous goods,drivers,transport vehicles and tanks,road and environment and real-time road management,and special influence factors such as man-made destruction on particular road segment,based on AHP method;and then the paper applies 1-9rating scale method to determine weights of each influence factor and establishes membership function of different influence factors.Finally the paper calculates the accident probability of road transportation of dangerous goods through secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.A case study shows that this methodology can be a new research approach for the accident probability evaluation of road transportation of dangerous goods,which will provide guidance for the risk management of road transportation of dangerous goods in particular regions and help to developing a decision support system.

关 键 词：危险品道路运输 层次分析 二级模糊综合评价 事故概率评估 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U492.336.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]