基于交易者预期的房地产价格变化模型  

A Price Model of Real Estate Market Based on Market Expectation

作　　者：王鹤[1] 蒋录全[1] 顾海英[1] 冯珊珊[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200030

出　　处：《上海管理科学》2014年第6期69-71,共3页Shanghai Management Science

摘　　要：本文基于交易者预期和正反馈,建立了一个房地产价格变动模型。根据该模型,分类讨论了交易者对房地产政策预期的不同,对房地产价格演变方向的影响。研究结果表明,房地产调控政策能否有效,除取决于政策出台时间、政策力度外,还取决于其能否有效改变交易者对市场未来走势的预期。Based on market expectation and positive feedback, we establish a mode. Then, according to this model, classification discussion is made on the effects of different traders＇ policy expectation on real estate price. It finds that, the effectiveness of real estate regulative policy not only lies on timing and executive strength of the policy ,but also depends on whether it can effectively change traders＇ expectation on market future tendency. If the market believes the regulative policy, then the policy works much better.

关 键 词：房地产市场 预期 调控政策 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]