改进的博弈论综合权重在大坝安全综合评价中的应用  

Improved Comprehensive Weight Calculated with Game Theory and Its Application in Dam Safety Synthetic Appraisal

作　　者：苏观南 付修庆 刘天祥[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学水资源高效利用与工程安全国家工程研究中心,南京210098 [3]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2014年第11期82-85,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51279052);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目基金(201201038);中国电力投资集团公司科技项目基金(2011-042-HHS-KJ-X);新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助基金(NCET-11-0628);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目基金(YS11001)

摘　　要：在大坝安全综合评价中,各指标权重的确定直接关系着评价结果的科学性、可靠性和全面性。目前,确定大坝安全评价指标权重的方法很多,如果仅通过其中一种方法来确定各指标的权重,未免太过片面。另外,传统博弈论综合权重模型一般会受到赋权方法数目的限制,而制约其应用范围。为此,将改进的博弈论综合权重模型引入大坝安全综合评价中,将多种不同赋权方法的结论有机地融合,最终得到更为科学、全面的综合权重。最后通过工程实例与其他综合赋权方法进行对比,证明此方法的合理性性、可靠性和方便性。In dam safety synthetic appraisal ,the determination of index weight is directly related to scientific ,reliability and comprehensiveness of the appraisal result .At present ,there are many methods in calculating the index weight of dam safety appraisal ,if one of the methods is only used to calculate the index weight ,its result may be too one-sided .In addition ,the traditional model of comprehensive weight calculated with game theory is usually limited by the number of empowerment approach ,which restricts its application scope .Therefore ,the improved model of comprehensive weight calculated with game theory is applied to dam safety comprehensive evaluation ,organically fusing index weight calculated with different methods of gaining more scientific and comprehensive weight .Finally ,compared with the other comprehensive weight method in the engineering example ,this method is reasonable ,reliable and simple in practical application .

关 键 词：大坝安全综合评价 权重 可能的指标权重集 博弈论 博弈论集化模型 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]