鲁甸地震(M_s6.5)临震预测、中期预测及中地壳流变结构  

Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake(M_s6.5)and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust

作　　者：曾佐勋[1,2,3] 刘根深[3] 李献瑞 贺赤诚 杨学祥[5] 杨冬红[6,7] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学教育部长江三峡库区地质灾害研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学地球科学学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学华中构造力学研究中心,湖北武汉430074 [4]中国地质大学地球物理与空间信息学院,湖北武汉430074 [5]吉林大学地球探测科学与技术学院,吉林长春130026 [6]吉林大学古生物学与地层学研究中心,吉林长春130026 [7]吉林大学东北亚生物演化与环境教育部重点实验室,吉林长春130026

出　　处：《地球科学（中国地质大学学报）》2014年第12期1751-1762,共12页Earth Science-Journal of China University of Geosciences

基　　金：国家"985"创新平台建设项目子课题(地震及其次生地质灾害研究);国家自然科学基金重点项目(No.41230206);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(No.41404041)

摘　　要：2014年8月3日16时30分,在云南省昭通市鲁甸县(27.1°N,103.3°E)发生Ms6.5地震,震源深度10km,死亡617人,失踪112人,受伤3 143人,受灾人口108.84万人.根据月亮赤纬角、太阳黑子极值年等周期变化及两者的叠加效应,总结出2013—2014年是云南强震高危期,具备Ms7地震的发生条件.次年,利用基础SW前兆仪的临震预测指纹法信息,制定了2014年底211号地震预测表,预测了2014年8月四川(26.18°N,105.33°E)将发生Ms5.3地震发生.2014年8月3日云南鲁甸Ms6.5地震表明:这次地震的指纹法预测时间相差1天,震中相差226km,震级误差Ms1.2.通过构造背景、地壳速度结构和震源机制研究,NW向的包谷垴-小河左旋走滑断裂是鲁甸地震的发震断裂.中下地壳低速(高导)体与包谷垴-小河断裂交接部位是流变界面能量释放的位置,即本次地震的震源位置,为板内地震三层次构造模式提供了一个新的案例.At 1 6：30 of August 3rd,2014,an earthquake with a magnitude of Ms 6.5 occurred in Ludian County of Zhaotong City,Yunnan Province （27.1°N,103.3°E）.The depth of the hypocenter is 10 km.Due to this disaster,61 7 people were died, 1 12 people disappeared and 108 840 000 people were injured.According to the superposition effects of the moon declination an-gle,sunspot extreme year cycles and the two,summed up 2013-2014 years is Yunnan strong earthquake periods of high risk, with the condition for the occurrence of Ms 7 earthquake.The following year,forecast method based SW fingerprint information using the earthquake precursory instrument,developed by the end of 2014 21 1 earthquake prediction table,predict 2014 Au-gust Sichuan （26.18°N,105.33°E）Ms 5.3 earthquake will occur.The Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake occurred on August 3,2014 in-dicates that the error of the predicted date is only 1 day,the predicted epicenter is about 226 km away from the actual earth-quake epicenter.Besides that the actual magnitude is Ms 1.2 larger than the predicted magnitude.According to the comprehen-sive analysis in tectonic setting,the S-wave crustal velocity structure and the focus mechanism of the Ludian earthquake,we believe that the Baogunao-Xiaohe left-lateral strike-slip fault triggered the Ludian earthquake,while the junction of the middle-low crusts low-velocity （high-conductivity）body and the Baogunao-Xiaohe fault is the location of the focus releasing the accu-mulated energy which practically is the epicenter.This provides a new case study of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquakes.

关 键 词：鲁甸地震 临震预测 中期预测 包谷垴-小河断裂 三层次构造模式 天然地震 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]