基于系统响应理论的分水源误差修正  

Error Correction of Different Water Sources Based on Theory of System Response

作　　者：刘可新[1] 包为民[1,2] 李佳佳[1] 司伟[1,2] 阙家骏 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2014年第11期44-47,103,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51279057;41371048);国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190091)

摘　　要：为了提高实时洪水预报的精度,在产流误差动态系统响应曲线修正方法的基础上,着重考虑了其局限性,提出了基于系统响应理论的分水源误差修正方法,将新安江模型汇流部分视为一个系统,首先对实测流量进行实时水源分割,得到各水源产流形成的流量过程;然后应用系统响应理论,计算得到各水源产流对应的动态系统响应曲线,对地面径流和壤中流进行修正,再用修正后的结果重新计算出流过程,从而达到实时修正的效果;最后通过理想案例和实际案例对该修正方法进行了检验。结果表明,该方法修正效果明显,有效提高了洪水预报精度。To improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting,a new method,named error correction of different water sources based on the theory of system response,is introduced.It is based on the runoff error correction method with dynamic system response curve.Watershed concentration model of the Xin＇anjiang model is considered as a response system.Firstly,the observed flow is divided into three parts including surface water flow,inter water flow and ground water flow.By using the theory of system response,dynamic system response curves of each water source are calculated to correct surface runoff errors and interflow errors.And then the discharge hydrograph is recalculated with the corrected runoff.The new method is tested in both ideal scenario and real case study.The results show that the new method works very well and it is able to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecasting.

关 键 词：洪水预报 水源分割 系统响应曲线 误差修正 

分 类 号：P338[天文地球—水文科学]