“三海”问题上美国对华立场的时间序列法分析  

Analysis of United States' Stance on China in the "Three-sea" Issues Based on Time-Series Method

作　　者：韦伟[1] 单洁[1] 李政[1] 罗亚拉[1] 

机构地区：[1]电子工程学院研一队,合肥230037

出　　处：《情报杂志》2014年第12期10-14,共5页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"信息化条件下美国‘重返亚洲’战略及我应对策略研究"(编号:13BGJ003)研究成果之一

摘　　要：通过历史法梳理出冷战结束后到本文研究的截止时间(2014年8月27日)内,美国在东海、台海和南海问题上对华立场的标志性事件,以专家法赋分进行半定量化处理,以时间序列法进行研究,结论表明:自冷战结束后,美国在"三海"问题上对华采取了一贯性的遏制立场。这一趋势在2009年以后,尤其在2011年后呈加剧态势,本文的工作为预测未来美国在"三海"问题上可能采取的对华立场提供了有科学依据的借鉴。Through historical method, the authors teased out the U. S. ’s stance on China＇s landmark events in the ＂Three-sea＂ issues since the end of the Cold War. After conducting treatment by expert semi-quantitative method and time-series studies, the authors drew the conclusion showing that：since the end of the Cold War, United States took consistent stance on China in the ＂Three-sea＂ issues con-stantly. This trend, after 2009, especially after 2011, was exacerbated. The work of this paper is to predict the future of the U. S.’s stance toward China in the ＂Three-sea＂ issues, expecting to provide a reference and scientific basis.

关 键 词：时间序列法 “三海”问题 美国对华立场 半定量化研究 

分 类 号：E0-053[军事—军事理论]