IPAT模型安徽省用水影响因素和预测分析  

Analysis of Impact Factors and Prediction of Water Use Based on IPAT Model for Anhui Province

作　　者：张勇 黄淑玲[2] 高杨[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省煤矿勘探工程技术中心 [2]宿州学院地球科学与工程学院

出　　处：《滁州学院学报》2014年第5期60-65,共6页Journal of Chuzhou University

基　　金：安徽省教育厅自然科学研究重点项目(项目号KJ2014A251);校级高校优秀拔尖人才培育资助项目

摘　　要：运用修正的IPAT模型,对2001-2010年安徽省用水状况进行了实证分析,结果表明:在3种影响用水量变化的因素中,富裕程度因素对用水量呈现出增加效应,其中2009-2010年间影响程度最大,为69.20×108m3;技术进步因素显著地减少了用水量,其中2009-2010年间影响程度最大,为58.36×108m3;而人口因素对用水量的影响比较轻微。对安徽省2015年、2020年和2025年的用水状况设计4种情形,经模型预测分析,可知当GDP年增长16%、单位GDP用水量年降低12%时,比较符合安徽省用水的实际情况,有利于安徽省资源节约型社会的建设,在环境约束下实现社会经济的快速发展。This paper has an empirical analysis of the water situation in Anhui Province in 2001-2010 based on the modified IPAT model.The results show that in the three kinds of factors affecting the change of water constmaption,affluence factors on water consumption show an increase in effect, which has the greatest influence between 2009-2010 to 69.20×10^8m^3;technological progress factors significantly reduce the amount of water, which has the greatest of influence between 2009-2010 to 58.36×10^8m^3;the impact of demographic factors on water use is relatively minor.This paper devies four cases of water situation in 2015, 2020 and 2025 of Anhui Province.Through model predictive analysis,it can be found that when the GDP growing by 16% year-on-year and water consumption per unit of GDP decreasing by 12% year-on-year, it is more in line with the reality of water resources in Anhui Province. It is conducive to the construction of resource-saving society in Anhui Province, and to achieve rapid socio-economic development with environmental constraints.

关 键 词：IPAT模型 结构分解 水资源预测 安徽省 

分 类 号：X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程]