货物贸易进口结构与经济增长关系研究  

Relationship Between Import Trade Structure of Goods and Economic Growth

作　　者：何昌[1] 台德进 

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经贸学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《江汉学术》2015年第1期21-29,共9页JIANGHAN ACADEMIC

摘　　要：为了探索货物贸易进口结构与经济增长之间的关系,通过对50个国家1995—2012年的数据进行分析,我们可得出如下结论:一是当跨期替代弹性相对较低(高)时,进口货物增长率的增加减少(增加)了经济长期增加的速度,进口货物增长率波动的增加促进(抑制)了经济长期增长的速度;二是货物进口的增长有利于拉动经济增长,初级品增长率的波动与经济增长率存在正相关关系;三是发展中国家的中间品和资本品增长率的波动与经济增长率呈负向关联性,消费品增长率的波动与经济增长率呈正向关联性,发达国家与之相反,最终的结果是整个世界初级品和中间品进口增长率波动的增加有利于促进世界经济的加速发展,资本品和消费品则反之。这一结论有助于理解进口结构与经济增长之间存在的普遍规律以及对于各国在合理调整进口结构的政策指导上。To explore the relationship between import trade structure of goods and economic growth, by analyzing the data in 1995--2012 of 50 countries, we can draw the following conclusions： first,when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is relatively low（high） , a rise in the growth rate of import goods leads to less（more） economic growth,but a rise in the volatility of import goods leads to more（less） economic growth; second,a rise in goods import leads to more economic growth and there is a positive correlation between the growth rate of primary goods fluctuations and economic growth; third, the growth rate fluctuation of intermediate goods and capital goods in developing countries has negative corre- lation with economic growth,while that of consumer goods has positive correlation with economic growth , and it is opposite as that in developed countries. The final result is that a rise in growth rate of primary goods and intermediate goods tends to accelerate the development of the world economy, but capital goods and consumer goods are opposite. This conclusion has important theoretical and practical significance for understanding the general law between import structure and economic growth and rationally adjusting im- port structure for countries.

关 键 词：货物贸易 进口结构 经济增长 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易] F061.2[经济管理—产业经济]