产业关联效应测度理论辨析  

Analysis of the Theoretical Issues on the Measurement of Industrial Linkage

作　　者：杨灿[1,2,3] 郑正喜 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院 [2]厦门大学国民经济与核算研究所 [3]福建省统计科学重点实验室

出　　处：《统计研究》2014年第12期11-19,共9页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目"中国产业关联特征及支柱产业研究"(11ATZ002);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目"中国居民消费价格指数(CPI)的理论与实践研究"(11JZD019)资助

摘　　要：基于投入产出模型可以构建多种产业关联效应测度方法,但不同方法间的区别与联系尚未获得足够重视和透彻把握。本文探讨了常规不加权产业关联测度的真实内涵和局限性,并由经济分析入手探讨和论证了相应的加权测度形式;将简单和加权的两种方式归纳为产业关联的相对(边际或平均)测度和绝对(规模)测度,着重辨析其经济内涵的异同点;进而分别采用Leontief和Ghosh模型体系,从需求拉动和供给推动两个角度测度后向和前向产业关联效应。结合我国投入产出数据的实证分析表明,不同测度方法给出的结果均有其经济分析价值;但相对而言,考虑规模因素的加权测度方法在刻画实际的产业关联效应方面显得更为客观、可信。Lots of measurement methods of industrial linkage were proposed based on Input-Output model. But the distinctions and connections among them have not obtained enough attention and thorough grasp of. In view of this, this paper discusses the connotation and limitation of unweighted industrial linkage measure, and demonstrates the weighted methods by economic analysis. It summarizes simple and weighted methods as the marginal measure and absolute measure, and focuses on the similarities and differences of economic connotation among them. It shows that backward linkage should be measured from demand-pull perspective by the Leontief model and that forward linkage should be measured from supply- driven perspective by the Ghosh model. Our empirical evidence shows that different methods have their own economic meaning and analytical value, but relatively speaking the absolute impact measurement method is more objective and credible in portraying the actual degree.

关 键 词：投入产出 产业关联效应 加权测度 后向关联 前向关联 

分 类 号：F222[经济管理—国民经济]