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作 者:刘鹏[1,2]
机构地区:[1]云南财经大学印度洋地区研究中心 [2]暨南大学国际关系学院、华侨华人研究院
出 处:《南亚研究》2014年第4期47-66,154-155,共20页South Asian Studies
摘 要:孟中印缅次区域合作(BCIM)的国际机制从1999年产生到现在已有15年,从二轨的地区合作论坛上升为一轨的经济走廊是该机制取得的重要进展,但仍需要进一步提升制度化水平。其现有的优势是开放性和灵活性,但也面临着五个方面的问题,即模式选择、政策不确定性、缅甸问题、互联互通问题和国内整合难题。同时,根据现有国际机制理论的发展,选取有效性和合法性作为制度化水平的衡量标准较为合适。要实现制度化水平的提升,还需要了解四国对参与构建国际机制的态度。四国对BCIM合作机制的态度还存在差异,中、孟的态度较为明确,而印、缅的态度还不明确。当前BCIM国际机制面临的问题首先是要为区域合作设定明确的目标,现有的选项包括了次区域国际组织、自贸区模式和维持现有模式。此外,还需要根据国际机制所包含的要素进行仔细设计,其中包括国际机制的成员资格、国际机制的议题范围、国际机制的集中程度和国际机制的灵活性。The main achievement of BCIM to date is the enhanced level of cooperation,which has progressed from a track two forum on regional cooperation to a track one regional economic corridor. Despite this achievement,there remains a need to enhance the level of institutionalization,which at present has comparative advantages with respect to openness and flexibility,but faces five challenges: the need to select a model for cooperation; policy uncertainties; the question of Myanmar; the issue of connectivity; and challenges around domestic coordination. At the same time,it follows from the development of theories of international institutions that effectiveness and legitimacy are the most appropriate standards for assessing the level of institutionalization. It is critical to understand the attitudes of the four countries towards participation in and development of international institutions.There are significant differences in the attitudes of the four countries towards the institutionalization of BCIM cooperation. While China and Bangladesh are quite clear regarding their attitudes,there is much less certainty on the part of India and Myanmar. The main challenge at present for the BCIM platform is that it needs to identify a clear goal for sub- regional cooperation. Several options have been identified: a sub- regional international organization; a free trade zone; and simply maintaining the current mode of cooperation. In addition,consideration needs to be given to the detailed design of the international framework,including membership qualifications,thematic scope,level of centralization,and flexibility.
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