节能减排约束下中国能源消费结构演变分析  

The Evolution Analysis of China's Energy Consumption Structure in the Constraints of Energy-Saving and Carbon Emissions Reduction

作　　者：柳亚琴[1] 赵国浩[2] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学信息管理学院,山西太原030031 [2]山西财经大学管理科学与工程学院,山西太原030031

出　　处：《经济问题》2015年第1期27-33,共7页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70873079)(71173141);山西省软科学研究项目(2013041015-04);山西省哲学社会科学"十二五"规划2011年度课题(晋规办字[2011]8号)

摘　　要：优化能源消费结构是节能减排目标实现的有效措施。首先分析了能源消费结构演进的内在变动规律,并运用基于OLS估计的Markov链模型预测了2020年中国能源消费结构的变化趋势,得出中国能源消费结构中以煤炭为主的高碳能源消费比重不断下降,而高效清洁能源所占比重不断上升的结论;然后通过路径分析方法对节能减排约束下能源消费结构的外部影响因素进行了剖析,明确其影响效应。结果表明:一方面,碳排放量约束对能源消费结构优化的直接影响较大,能源消费量约束、经济发展水平、能源价格和能源禀赋对能源消费结构优化起着间接推动作用;另一方面,节能减排会对能源供给和能源利用效率造成一定程度的负面影响,从而使碳排放约束和能源消费量约束对科技发展水平产生抑制作用。An effective measure for realizing the goal of energy- saving and carbon emissions reduction is optimizing energy consumption structure. This paper firstly uses Markov chains model based on OLS to predict the trend of China＇s energy consumption structure in 2020,and concludes that consumption structure of high carbon energy relying mainly on coal are falling but clean and high efficient energy will be better- positioned in future energy consumption structure. Then it applies the path analysis methods to dissect the external influence factors of energy consumption structure in the constraints of energy- saving and carbon emissions reduction and confirms the influence.The results show that on the one hand carbon emissions constraint plays an evident role in improving energy consumption structure directly,and energy consumption constraint,economic development level,energy price and energy resource endowment structure drive the optimization of energy consumption structure indirectly. On the other hand,energy supply and energy utilization efficiency will be adversely influenced to some degree by energy conservation and emissions reduction so that the constraints of energy- saving and carbon emissions reduction have obviously restrained the technological development level.

关 键 词：能源消费结构 碳排放 MARKOV链 影响因素 路径分析 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济]