1997～2013年人民币均衡汇率失调程度的实证研究  

Empirical Study of RMB Equilibrium Exchange Rate and China's Exchange Rate Misalignment during 1997 ～ 2013

作　　者：严太华[1] 程欢[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,四川重庆400000

出　　处：《经济问题》2015年第1期50-54,共5页On Economic Problems

摘　　要：利用行为均衡汇率理论模型对人民币汇率水平进行研究，建立了基于非抵补利率平价理论的行为均衡汇率模型，实证分析了1997—2013年人民币汇率的均衡汇率水平和失调程度；建立误差修正模型分析各变量对于人民币汇率水平的短期影响和人民币汇率系统自身的误差。分析表明：1997年1季度～2013年4季度，人民币实际汇率水平在均衡汇率水平附近波动的幅度不超过±2％。2010年至今，人民币汇率失调程度一直低于±1％，基本达到均衡水平。基于研究结论提出政策建议：一是合理利用政府支出的消费方向调节汇率水平；二是进一步规范与完善资本市场；三是逐步提升汇率的自我修正机制；四是加快推进中国经济转型。This paper employs the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate of RMB and the exchange rate misalignment in China during 1997 to 2013. With Error - Correction Model, we analyze the short - term impacts of each variable on RMB real effective exchange rate. The result shows that RMB real exchange rate＇ fluctuation amplitude did not exceed ±2% during the sample period. And the mis- alignment was less than 1% from 2010, this outcome indicates that RMB exchange rate almost reach the equilibri- um level. Based on the research conclusions, four proposals were put forward ： rational use the direction of govern- ment＇s consumption as a method to adjust exchange rate; further rationalizing and improve the capital market; gradually increase the self - correcting mechanisms of RMB exchange rate ; proceed the economic transformation of China.

关 键 词：人民币均衡汇率 汇率失调 行为均衡汇率模型 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F830.73[经济管理—金融学]