降雨输入不确定性对分布式流域水文模拟的影响研究——以武烈河流域为例  

Effect of Uncertainty in Rainfall Input on Distributed Watershed Hydrological Simulation: A Case Study of Wuliehe River Basin

作　　者：史晓亮[1,2] 杨志勇[1] 绪正瑞 李颖[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [2]西安科技大学测绘科学与技术学院,陕西西安710054 [3]济南市卧虎山水库管理处,山东济南250115 [4]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春130102

出　　处：《水文》2014年第6期26-32,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B03);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51009148)

摘　　要：降雨输入对分布式流域水文模拟具有重要影响。针对流域降雨资料不完整的情况,以武烈河流域为例,基于反距离加权平均法对雨量站降雨资料进行插补延长,并结合SWAT模型研究了降雨输入不确定性对分布式流域水文模拟的影响。结果表明:不同降雨输入对流域平均降雨量的影响较小,但基于气象站资料的降雨数据在降雨空间差异显著的年份会明显低估面雨量,且在夏季汛期表现更为显著;不同降雨输入对分布式流域水文模拟的影响较大;在雨量站降雨资料不完整的情况下,通过对雨量站降雨数据进行插补延长,相对于直接利用气象站降雨资料,在一定程度上可以提高径流模拟精度,满足降雨资料欠缺流域分布式水文模拟的实际需求。In a given watershed, the rainfall input has an important impact on distributed hydrological simulation. Thus, there is a real need for more rainfall gauges in order to reflect rainfall variability and its effect on runoff prediction in the watershed scale.However, the rainfall data may be incompleted in some watersheds. Aiming at the problem, this study interpolated the rainfall data with the inverse distance weighted method in the Wuliehe River Basin, and the soil and water assessment tool（SWAT） was applied to analyze the effect of different rainfall input on runoff simulation, and the measured data of rainfall gauges were used for SWAT calibration and validation. The results indicate that different rainfall input have less affect on the average areal rainfall, but the area rainfall would be severely underestimated based on the rainfall data from the weather stations in some years, and largely re-flected during the flood periods. The different rainfall input has significant effects on runoff prediction. Under the situation of rain-fall incompleteness, compared with the directly utility of rainfall data of weather stations within the study area, using the interpolat-ed rainfall data of gauges can increase the accuracy of runoff simulation to some extent, and to fulfill the distributed hydrological simulation in the basins that rainfall data is incompleteness.

关 键 词：降雨输入 插补延长 SWAT模型 武烈河 径流模拟 

分 类 号：P334[天文地球—水文科学]