贸易增长、国际生产分割与CO2排放核算:产业vs.产品  

Trade Growth,International Fragmentation,and China's CO2Growth 1992-2007:The Product-cause Perspective

作　　者：赵忠秀[1] 裴建锁[1] 闫云凤[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029 [2]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2014年第12期11-17,共7页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41205105;71103066);教育部哲社重大课题攻关项目(11JZD025);对外经济贸易大学优秀青年学者培育计划资助(2013YQ01)

摘　　要：国际生产分割影响碳排放核算的准确性。之前研究集中在讨论产业部门的效应,本文从产品"蕴含"(embodied)污染的角度进行分析。依据最新可获得的投入产出表数据,考虑加工贸易,利用改进的结构分解模型(SDA),本文研究了我国温室气体排放的影响因素。结果表明:出口的迅猛增长造成了大量的污染排放(剔除加工贸易的影响);其次,排放强度的大幅度降低有效地缓解了环境压力,但生产技术变化的方向、最终消费的高速增长使得节能减排的压力巨大。从产品"蕴含"污染的角度,建筑业的扩张对CO2排放影响明显,2002年至2007年间对该产品的消费贡献了28%的CO2排放增幅。因此,应加强技术进步的减排作用,诸如大力推广绿色建筑等。When accounting for the growth of carbon dioxide, international fragmentation needs to be taken into account. Different from previous studies, which focus on the industry ef/ect, it is proposed to investi- gate the issue from the perspective of product-cause, i.e. the changes due to the production of certain final goods （either for domestic consumption or for export）. By adapting the latest available input-output （IO） data taking into account the processing trade, and by utilizing modified structural decomposition analysis （SDA） model, this paper studies the causes of China＇s CO2 emissions growth so as to provide industrial policy suggestions. It is found that, the substantial reduction of coefficients of emissions helped to release environmental pressure, yet the change of technical coefficients, the rapid growth of final uses and export worsened the situation. To enhance the capacity of reducing the emission intensity, new technology such as the so-called ＂green building＂ should be promoted.

关 键 词：生产分割 投入产出表 结构分解模型 排放强度 产业政策 

分 类 号：C94[自然科学总论—系统科学] F74