网购快递物流服务系统测评的枝模型仿真  

Branch Model Simulation for Express Logistics Service System Evaluation under Online Shopping

作　　者：于宝琴[1] 武淑萍[1] 杜广伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学商学院,天津300222

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2014年第12期72-78,共7页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：市教委社科重大项目(2012ZD029);市教育科学规划"十二五"重点课题(CEXII2003)

摘　　要：以网购环境为背景,运用物流服务理论与系统动力学理论,通过对快递物流服务的流程分析,构建网购快递物流服务系统测评体系,对此体系和物流服务质量这一主变量分别进行了因果关系分析,进而构建了物流服务质量下的配送及时率这一附属变量的系统动力学枝模型,并对模型进行了量纲化检验、敏感性检验以及极端条件测试以证明模型的正确性;在此基础上,将申通、圆通、中通以及韵达四家快递企业的数据运用到Vensim软件对枝模型进行实证仿真并得出以此变量为根据的快递企业排名,为网购快递物流服务的测评提供一种新的方法。Under online shopping environment, express logistics service evaluation system was established based on logistics services theory and system dynamics theory through the analysis of the process of ex- press logistics service. For this system and one main variable ＂logistics services quality＂, their causal rela- tionship was analyzed;and then the system dynamics branch model of a subsidiary variable＂timely delivery rate＂from the main variable was established, and the model is proved correct by the dimensionless testing, the sensitivity testing and the extreme conditions testing. On this basis, the data of the four courier compa- nies including Shentong, Yuantong, Zhongtong and Yunda were applied by using the simulation software Vensim in order to confirm the effectiveness of the simulation brand model and courier companies rankings are obtained based on the subsidiary variable. A new method of express logistics service assessment is pro- vided.

关 键 词：网购 快递物流服务 因果关系 系统动力学 枝模型 

分 类 号：F253[经济管理—国民经济]