改革开放以来我国耕地保护绩效定量研究——基于数量保护的视角  

A Quantitative Study on the Performance of Cultivated Land Protection in China Since the Reform and Opening up——Based on the Angel of Protection

作　　者：杨立[1] 王博祺 韩锋[3] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院中国农村研究院,北京100084 [2]北京鑫海时代土地规划设计有限公司,北京100026 [3]重庆地质矿产研究院外生成矿与矿山环境重庆市重点实验室,重庆400042

出　　处：《农机化研究》2015年第3期1-6,共6页Journal of Agricultural Mechanization Research

基　　金：清华大学中国农村研究院博士后研究课题(CIRS2013PD03);中国博士后基金项目(2013M540974);"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD04B02)

摘　　要：通过对改革开放以来我国耕地保护政策绩效的定量分析,为健全耕地保护政策提供参考依据。根据修正后的耕地面积数据(1978-2012年)和耕地保护相关的经济社会因素,构建耕地数量变化的多元线性回归模型。在对耕地保护政策发展历程、现有体系分析的基础上,依据该模型对35年来耕地保护政策的绩效进行了分析。研究结果显示,我国耕地保护政策绩效显著,35年共遏制耕地减少面积250.963×104hm2,遏制耕地减少贡献率达17.35%。耕地保护政策绩效有着明显的时间差异性,不同阶段政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率差异明显;但在耕地保护政策发展的4个阶段,政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率是逐渐上升的。说明耕地保护政策在不断的发展,耕地保护政策的绩效在逐渐发挥。2003-2012年,耕地减少面积逐渐稳定并降至多年来的最低点,同时政策遏制耕地减少的贡献率达到峰值;反映耕地数量保护的目标绩效显著,达到了顶峰。同时,提出了未来的耕地保护工作需要突出耕地的质量建设和生态建设两个着重点。Since reform and opening , it is provide a reference for completing cultivated land protection policies that through analyzed quantitative the performance of cultivated land protection policies in china .Based on analyzed the devel-opment process and the existing system of cultivated land protection policies .According the corrected data of cultivated land area （1978-2012 ） and the economic-social factors associated with cultivated land protection , this paper estab-lished a multiply linear regression model about the change of cultivated land data .The performance of cultivated land pro -tection policies for 35 years is analyzed by the model .The result shows that the performance of cultivated land protection policies is significant.The policies contained the area 250.963×10^4 hm^2 and distribution rate 17.35% of cultivated land reduction .The performance of cultivated land protection policies has a significantly time difference .The distribution rate of the policies to contain cultivated land reduction is significant difference for different stages .However , the distribution rate of the policies contained the cultivated land area reduction was gradually rising in the four stages of the development process for cultivated land protection policies .It shows that cultivated land protection policies is in constant development , and the performance of which is play gradually .The reduction of cultivated land fell to the lowest point and stabilized gradually in the 2003-2012 stage .While the distribution rate of the policies contained the cultivated land area reduction achieved a peak .In the future , the work of cultivated land protection needs to highlight the two emphases are quality and ecological construction .

关 键 词：耕地保护政策 数量保护 绩效 多元回归模型 数据修正 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]