基于县域经济发展的电力负荷预测方法  

Power Load Forecasting Method Based on County Economy Development

作　　者：张维[1] 周小兵[1] 崔灿[2] 吴艳芳[2] 胡宝林[2] 李婷[2] 陈炜[2] 李妍[2] 王少荣[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网湖北省电力公司经济技术研究院,湖北武汉430000 [2]华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《机电工程技术》2014年第12期86-92,239,共8页Mechanical & Electrical Engineering Technology

摘　　要：县域电力需求与县域经济的发展密切相关。为了能够客观、全面、科学地对县域电力需求进行预测,提出了一种基于县域经济发展的电力负荷预测方法。所提方法首先采用因子分析法和聚类分析法,对县域经济进行分类和发展预测,然后基于县域经济发展指标采用线性回归方程预测电力电量。以湖北省73个典型县为应用实例,采用历史数据对所提方法的正确性进行了验证,并给出了未来典型年份的县域电力负荷的预测结果。County electricity demand is closely related to the development of county economy. In order to forecast electricity demand objectively, comprehensively and scientifically, this paper presents a load forecasting method based on county economy development. Firstly, the proposed method uses factor analysis and cluster analysis for classifying and forecasting county economy development. Secondly,uses linear regression equation to forecast electricity demand based on county economic development indicators. Finally,takes 73 typical counties in Hubei Province into consideration as examples, verifies correctness of the proposed method with historical data, and gives forecasting results of counties’ power load in the future.

关 键 词：电力负荷预测 县域经济 因子分析法 聚类分析法 线性回归方程 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]