Modeling the rice phenology and production in China with SIMRIW： sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation  

作　　者：Shuai ZHANG Fulu TAO Runhe SHI 

机构地区：[1]Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China [2]Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China

出　　处：《Frontiers of Earth Science》2014年第4期505-511,共7页地球科学前沿（英文版）

摘　　要：Crop models are robust tools for simulating the impact of climate change on rice development and production, but are usually designed for specific stations and varieties. This study focuses on a more adaptable model called Simulation Model for Rice-Weather Relations （SIMRIW）. The model was calibrated and validated in major rice production regions over China, and the parameters that most affect the model＇s output were determined in sensitivity analyses. These sensitive parameters were estimated in different ecological zones. The simulated results of single and double rice cropping systems in different ecological zones were then compared. The accuracy of SIMRIW was found to depend on a few crucial parameters. Using optimized parameters, SIMRIW properly simulated the rice phenology and yield in single and double cropping systems in different ecological zones. Some of the parameters were largely dependent on ecological zone and rice type, and may reflect the different climate conditions and rice varieties among ecological zones.Crop models are robust tools for simulating the impact of climate change on rice development and production, but are usually designed for specific stations and varieties. This study focuses on a more adaptable model called Simulation Model for Rice-Weather Relations （SIMRIW）. The model was calibrated and validated in major rice production regions over China, and the parameters that most affect the model＇s output were determined in sensitivity analyses. These sensitive parameters were estimated in different ecological zones. The simulated results of single and double rice cropping systems in different ecological zones were then compared. The accuracy of SIMRIW was found to depend on a few crucial parameters. Using optimized parameters, SIMRIW properly simulated the rice phenology and yield in single and double cropping systems in different ecological zones. Some of the parameters were largely dependent on ecological zone and rice type, and may reflect the different climate conditions and rice varieties among ecological zones.

关 键 词：RICE PHENOLOGY parameter optimization SIMRIW SIMULATION 

分 类 号：S511[农业科学—作物学] P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]