基于不完全偏好信息的多阶段应急群决策方法  

Multi-stage Group Decision-making Methodology Based on Incomplete Preference Information for Emergency

作　　者：靖可[1] 唐亮[2] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳航空航天大学经济与管理学院,辽宁沈阳110186 [2]沈阳航空航天大学机电工程学院,辽宁沈阳110186

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2014年第6期73-80,共8页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71301108;7120116);中国博士后科学基金特别资助(2014T70462);中国博士后基金面上项目(2013M530228);辽宁省教育厅项目(W2013030)

摘　　要：针对灾害事件的多阶段演化特征,研究多阶段应急群决策方法。在复杂的决策环境下,为了解决决策专家难以对应急方案进行准确评价的问题,允许专家以残缺精确数与残缺模糊数判断矩阵给出偏好信息;而且,多阶段应急群决策模型通过构建目标规划模型对决策专家进行分阶段赋权,并解得各决策阶段下群体的方案偏好,最后通过求解决策阶段权重,获取全局群体偏好最优解。应用于危险化学品液态苯泄漏的应急处置案例验证了该方法的可行性与有效性。With respect to the dynamic process of disaster evolution , a multi-stage group decision making method-ology is proposed .Under the complex decision environment , to resolve the problem that is hard to be assessed exactly to every emergency alternative , experts are permitted to give preference information by judgment matrix with incomplete exact number and fuzzy number .Moreover , through the multi-stage emergency group decision making model , decision experts can be weighted for different stages and the alternative , and preferences of group in each stage is obtained as well .Finally , a global group preference optimal solution is got by solving the weights of each decision stage .The application case of emergency response in hazardous chemicals leakage of liquid ben-zene has proved the method is workable .

关 键 词：多阶段群决策 不完全信息 残缺判断矩阵 专家权重 决策阶段权重 应急响应 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]