政府主导背景下的固定资产投资、信贷危机与通货膨胀  

Fixed-assets Investment,Credit Crisis and Inflation under Government

作　　者：孔婷婷[1,2] 扈文秀[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学工商管理学院,西安710054 [2]西安工业大学经济管理学院,西安710021

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2014年第6期236-243,共8页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70973096);陕西省高校重点学科专项资金建设资助项目(107-00X902)

摘　　要：我国政府在经济高速增长的过程中发挥了重要的作用,然而这种模式的弊端,也日渐凸显出来。本文运用协整检验和向量自回归模型,在我国现行政府主导投资决策体制的背景下,研究了固定资产投资及其贷款额与通货膨胀水平和货币供应量之间的关系。结果表明,通货膨胀水平、固定资产总投资、固定资产投资的国内贷款额度、广义货币供应量之间具有着长期均衡关系;且它们之间是单向引导关系,并不具有相互反馈的关系。随着时间的推移,固定资产投资的国内贷款额度、M2和固定资产投资对通货膨胀水平的影响越来越显现出来,其中固定资产投资贷款所引起的影响最大,在引起通货膨胀水平变动因素中起到了主导作用。因此,减少政府对投资领域的过多干预,有利于实现宏观经济平稳快速可持续发展。Government of our country plays an important role in the rapid development of economics , but the dis-advantages of this model become obvious .This paper researches relationships among fixed-assets investment、its loan and broad money supply by Johansen co-integration test and Vector Auto regression Model .The result shows that there is relationship of long-term equilibrium among fixed-assets investment , its loan and broad money sup-ply.The relationship is one-way leading and not reactive each other .As time goes on, the influences of fixed-assets investment , its loan and broad money supplies on inflation become big , and the largest influence is loan of fixed-assets investment , which plays a leading role in variation factors of inflation .Therefore , reducing the excessive intervention of the government in investment benefits the sustainable development of macro economy steadily and rapidly .

关 键 词：中国经济 政府主导 向量自回归模型 固定资产投资 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]