舰船总体任务成功性的建模与应用  

Modeling & application of mission success probability of naval surface vessel

作　　者：吕建伟[1] 谢宗仁[1] 狄鹏[1] 杨晶[1] 

机构地区：[1]海军工程大学管理工程系,武汉430033

出　　处：《海军工程大学学报》2014年第6期51-54,68,共5页Journal of Naval University of Engineering

基　　金：国家部委基金资助项目(4010403040105;20134314231406)

摘　　要：针对典型舰船的系统组成,进行了全舰任务成功性指标的示例计算,给出了总体指标的层次化表达方式。以舰船任务过程和典型任务剖面为依据,分析了任务可靠性和任务成功性之间的区别与联系,建立了舰船总体任务成功性指标的多阶段整体模型,并对航渡、待机、交战、撤离、返航阶段分别进行了仿真和解析建模。在建模与计算的基础上,通过敏感性分析计算了任务阶段持续时间的单位降低率等指标,为舰船任务成功性问题及其相关研究,提供了一个系统性的分析框架和方法。Aiming at the composition of a classical ship structures, the calculation of the shiprs mis- sion success probability leads to a hierarchy structure diagram. According to the mission requirement and classical mission characteristics of navy vessels, this paper analyzes the difference and relationship between the mission reliability and success probability and presents an integrated model for the whole ship＇s multi-phase mission success. The model is used for the analysis and simulation of the processes of sailing, standing on alert, fighting, withdrawing and returning. Through sensitivity analysis, the unit decreasing rates of duration in mission phases are calculated. The research provides a systemic frame and pattern for the analysis of mission success probability of naval surface vessels.

关 键 词：水面舰船 任务成功性 多阶段建模与仿真 敏感性分析 工程应用 

分 类 号：U674.7[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]