货币政策传导系统混沌特征研究——基于复杂性理论及实证的分析  

Chaos Characteristic of Monetary Policy Transmission System:An Empirical Study Based on Complexity Theory

作　　者：王祥兵 张学立[2] 

机构地区：[1]贵州工程应用技术学院经济与管理学院,贵州毕节551700 [2]贵州民族大学法学院,贵州贵阳314001

出　　处：《河南大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第1期65-72,共8页Journal of Henan University(Social Sciences）

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目"彝族经济思想研究"(13YJAZH089)阶段性成果;贵州省社科规划课题项目"货币政策传导系统动态演化机制研究"(13GZYB28)阶段性成果;贵州省联合基金项目"货币政策传导系统复杂性及演化研究"(2013GZ89237)阶段性成果;贵州省科技厅软科学重点课题"科技金融对科技创新支撑研究"(2014GZ69378)阶段性成果

摘　　要：货币政策传导系统是一类典型的复杂经济系统,存在着复杂的动力学演化过程。用混沌方法对货币政策变迁过程建立动力学模型,用蝴蝶效应对货币的乘数效应、金融危机等现象提出复杂性科学阐释,最后,利用中国货币政策传导基础数据对理论分析的结论进行验证的理论和实证研究表明,货币政策传导系统具有深刻复杂性机制和混沌特征。提高货币政策传导系统运行效率,防止系统剧烈波动的关键在于,必须以货币政策传导系统混沌特征为基础构建完善的货币政策传导机制,以增强货币政策传导系统的稳定性和抗干扰能力,从根本上消除由货币政策传导系统混沌特征所引发的系统异常波动的根源。Monetary policy transmission system is a typical complex economic system, and has a complicated dynamic evolutional process. The chaos theory can be introduced to conduct research on it, thus the dynamic model of the process of monetary policy change is established by applying the chaotic method. Complexity scientific explanation on monetary multiplier effect and financial crisis is presented by using the butterfly effect, and then the theoretical conclusion is verified by using Chings monetary policy transmission basic data, and the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward. The research proves that monetary policy transmission system has profound complexity mechanism and chaos characteristics in order to strengthen stability and keep resistant to interference of monetary policy transmission system, and eliminate abnormal fluctuations caused by chaos characteristics. The key to improve the operation efficiency of monetary policy transmission system and prevent it from volatile is that perfect monetary policy transmission mechanism must be constructed on the basis of the chaos rule of it.

关 键 词：货币政策传导系统 复杂性 混沌 蝴蝶效应 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]