劳动力转移背景下农业机械化对粮食生产贡献研究  

Contribution of Agricultural Mechanization to Grain Production under Agricultural Labors Migration

作　　者：张宗毅[1] 刘小伟[2] 张萌[1] 

机构地区：[1]农业部南京农业机械化研究所,江苏南京210014 [2]农业部农业机械化管理司,北京100125

出　　处：《农林经济管理学报》2014年第6期595-603,共9页Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71303125);农业部农业机械化管理司委托项目

摘　　要：通过单位面积内主要农作物或畜产品(头)用工量变化及其生产规模(种植面积或养殖数量)的变化,测算我国农业劳动力需求的变化,并分析我国农业劳动力年龄结构变化,进而修正农业劳动力供给规模,最后得出以下结论:(1)以往关于农业剩余劳动力的研究,忽视了农业机械化的进步和农业劳动力年龄结构问题,若考虑这些问题,我国农业剩余劳动力问题非常轻微。(2)我国农业机械化的发展并没有超前发展,反而是及时弥补了由于农业劳动力转移留下的生产能力空缺。(3)若按照1985年的劳动生产率计算,生产2010年的农产品,我国农业劳动力存在缺口高达1.78亿人,而这一缺口由农业机械化进行了弥补。若没有农业机械化的发展,静态地看,粮食生产面积将下降59.06%,农业机械化对于保障我国粮食安全发挥了巨大作用。In this paper,the changes of demand labors of per unit production of major crops or animals as well as the producing scales were analyzed.And structural changes of Chinese agricultural labor ages were also analyzed.Based on that,we can get the following conclusions.First,if we take the progress of agricultural mech？anization and the structure of agricultural labor ages into account,which were neglected by past research,there will be few agricultural surplus labors in China.Secondly,Chinese agricultural mechanization is developing at the regular level which compensated for the shortage of producing ability caused by the transmission of agricul？tural labors.Thirdly,agricultural mechanization plays a very important role in ensuring food security in China.If we were to achieve the agricultural production in 2010 based on the labor productivity in 1985,we would have needed 178 million more agricultural laborers than the actual ones then. And it is agricultural mechanization which compensated for the great shortage of agricultural labor.Particularly,the grain producing area will shrink by 59.06% without the development of agricultural mechanization.

关 键 词：劳动力替代 劳动力转移 农业机械化 粮食安全 

分 类 号：F324.6[经济管理—产业经济]