西部退耕农户林种选择意愿及影响因素动态分析——以云南省鹤庆县、贵州省织金县为例  

Dynamic Analysis on the Farmers' Willingness for Forest Species and Its Influencing Factors in Grain for Green Project of Western China——Taking Heqing County in Yunnan and Zhijin County in Guizhou as Examples

作　　者：支玲[1] 郭小年[1] 阮萍[2] 谷鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南林业大学经济管理学院,昆明650224 [2]云南财经大学会计学院,昆明650221

出　　处：《林业经济》2014年第12期90-95,共6页Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"我国西部林业生态建设政策评价与体系完善研究"(编号:11&ZD042-ZD03)

摘　　要：文章运用农户问卷调查的连续调查数据,采用计量经济学分析方法,建立模型对影响退耕农户林种选择意愿的因素进行了动态分析。结果显示,第一次调查退耕还林面积比重、在退耕还林地投入的劳动量、退耕农户是否接受林业技术培训、是否有长期经营林地的打算、退耕补助标准的适度性、农户对工程未来的预期6个变量对农户的林种选择意愿影响显著;第二次调查包括农户户主年龄、家庭人均收入、在退耕还林地投入的劳动量、是否有长期经营林地的打算、退耕补助标准的适度性、农户对兑现政策的满意程度6个变量对农户林种的选择意愿影响显著。文章针对其中存在的问题,提出健全生态效益补偿机制、优化后续产业发展环境的建议。The firmer is an important participation part in the Grain for Green Project and how to stimulate farm- er＇s enthusiasm is an important issue for the project＇s sustainable development. This paper uses continuous survey data of household to analyze the factors which can affect the willingness of farmer＇s willingness of forest species by dynamic econometric models. The results show that： in the first survey, the proportion of returning farmland in cultivated land, the amount of labor invested in returning arable land, whether to accept the forestry technical training, whether having a long-term business plan for forest land, the moderation in the subsidy standards of farm- land, farmers＇ expectation for the future have significant effects on the farmer＇ s willingness for forest species; in the second survey, the age of respondents, per capita household income, the amount of labor invested in returning arable land, whether having a long-term business plan for forest land, the amount of capital invested in returning arable land, farmers＇ satisfaction for cash subsidy policy have significant effects on farmer＇ s willingness for forest species. The paper put forward some suggestions for existing problems such as constructing a sound ecological compensation mechanism and optimizing the development environment of follow-up industry.

关 键 词：林种 选择意愿 二元LOGISTIC回归 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济]