最佳解释推理是一种独立的推理模式吗?——试论最佳解释推理、贝叶斯推理和决策推理之关系  

Is Inference to the Best Explanation an Independent Form of Inference?——On the Relations among IBE, Bayesian Inference and Decision-making Inference

作　　者：袁继红[1] 陈晓平[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东财经大学,广东广州510320 [2]华南师范大学,广东广州510006

出　　处：《自然辩证法研究》2015年第1期22-26,共5页Studies in Dialectics of Nature

基　　金：教育部项目"社会科学哲学视野下的科学解释与人文理解"(13YJC720044);中国逻辑学会重点项目"对塔斯基‘真’理论的批评与重建"(13CLZD001)

摘　　要：最佳解释推理(IBE)在其表述上存在很大的歧义性,这使它与归纳推理特别是贝叶斯推理之间的关系及其独立性问题成为争论的热点之一。本文将IBE作了狭义、中义和广义的区分,并引入决策推理加以比较,从而得出如下结论:狭义的IBE相当于贝叶斯认证的似然推理;中义的IBE相当于贝叶斯条件化推理及其初始概率的确定;广义的IBE相当于决策推理,其接受规则(可爱性原则)相当于最大期望效用原则。总之,IBE一旦被给予严格的表述,要么相当于贝叶斯推理,要么相当于决策推理,因而失去自己的独立性。This paper focus on the relation between IBE and Bayesian inference, and the independency of IBE. We make the distinctions among nar- row IBE, intermediate IBE and wide IBE, meanwhile, compare them with decision-making inference. Our conclusion is that： Narrow IBE equals to likelihood inference in Bayesian confirmation theory. Intermediate IBE equals to the combination of Bayesian conditionalization and the determination for initial prior probabilities in Bayesian inference. Wide IBE equals to decision-making inference; concretely, the principle of acceptance in IBE, i. e., loveliness, equals to the principle of maximum expected utility. Shortly, IBE is equal to either Bayesian inference or decision-making inference once it is rigorously formulated, therefore, IBE has lost its independency.

关 键 词：最佳解释推理 贝叶斯推理 决策推理 似然推理 可爱性原则 

分 类 号：N031[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]