砥砺前行中的世界经济：新常态、新动力、新趋势--2015年世界经济分析与展望  

Outlook of the World Economy: The New Normal,The New Power,New Trends——2015 World Economic Analysis and Prospects

作　　者：周琢[1] 张天桂[1] 盛垒[1] 张广婷[1] 薛安伟[1] 刘芳[1] 姚勤华[1] 权衡[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2015年第1期3-23,127,共21页World Economy Studies

摘　　要：自2008年全球金融危机爆发至今,世界经济仍处于经济增长长周期的萧条阶段,也是化解危机前期积累的泡沫和风险的消化阶段以及拉动经济增长新旧动力的徘徊或转换阶段。展望2015年,美元升息、石油价格走势、欧盟的货币政策、日本经济的结构性困局、以"一路一带"为主的经济增长新战略以及以页岩气革命为代表的新能源和以工业4.0为核心的新工业方式都将影响2015年的全球经济复苏。文章分析认为,2015年世界经济将呈现整体微弱复苏的非均衡发展态势,2015年世界经济增长率将达到3.34%;新兴经济体经济增速大多将保持平稳或向上态势,中国增速可能为6.64%。世界经济正处在从旧常态走向新常态的过渡阶段,总体而言尚未真正完全走向新常态。在世界经济新常态下,中国经济与世界经济在双向开放通道中形成的新型互动之势将愈加明显。其中,中美经济再平衡过程中的新常态将会在世界经济复苏增长中发挥十分重要的引领作用。In review of 2014,this paper argues that following the 2008 global financial crisis,the world economy is in fact still in the recessional phase of the long-term business cycle,in the early stages of resolving economic bubbles and risks accumulated during the financial crises,and in the conversion stage from old economic drivers to new ones. Looking ahead to 2015,the US dollar interest rates,oil prices,the EU monetary policy,structural predicament of the Japanese economy,'the Belt and Road Initiatives','shale gas revolution',and'industry 4. 0'will be key variables shaping the global economic recovery. According to the forecast made in this article,the world economy in the coming year as a whole presents a trend of weak recovery. The world economic growth rates in 2015 and 2016 will reach 3. 34% and 3. 68% respectively. For most emerging economies,their economic growth will remain stable or slightly upward in 2015. As for China,we expect the growth rates in 2015 and 2016 to be 6. 64%and 6. 78% respectively. In the end,the paper argues that the world economy is in a transitional phase from the old to the new normal rather than in a completely new normal state. In the new normal of the world economy,the newly interactive pattern with two- way open channels between the Chinese economy and the world economy becomes more apparent than ever.

关 键 词：世界经济分析 新常态 新动力 新趋势 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]